Research, guides, and newsroom articles from 0xinsider. Get your edge before the next game or event on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Weighted Volume looks like a volume metric. It is a fixed multiple of the taker fee you paid, so no entry price climbs tiers more cheaply than another. Here is the derivation, the fee bill behind every tier, and the one category that charges 64% more for the same progress.
Pro costs $99 a month. In a 13 August 2026 production snapshot, a flat $100 stake on every settled Pick of the Day produced +$462.29 in net profit, about 4.7 times the monthly price. This article shows that math, its limits, and who should not pay.
swisstony holds $23,390,424 in Polymarket-owned P&L across 180,079 resolved markets. The win rate is 60.13% and the profit factor is 1.39, which together describe a small per-market edge repeated at very high volume.
RN1 holds $12,787,924 in Polymarket-owned P&L while winning 51.70% of 107,543 resolved markets. The edge per market is close to a coin flip; the size of the record is what carries the total.
0x8dxd has banked $2,381,888 across 34,444 resolved markets and $200.5 million of volume, on a 54.84% win rate. The provider total and our mirror agree to the cent.
vidarx holds $659,586.50 in Polymarket-owned P&L across 17,447 resolved markets, at a 56.35% win rate and a 1.37 profit factor.
MuseumOfBees wins 52.00% of resolved markets and returns 1.04 per dollar lost. That is about as thin as a working edge gets, and it is worth reading precisely because it is that thin.
ColdMath wins 78.43% of resolved markets, the highest rate in this cohort, and has banked $135,447.50. Accuracy and profit are not the same axis, and this wallet is the clearest illustration of it.
You cannot buy Polymarket or Kalshi stock. You can buy the brokers, exchanges, and operators building the industry. Here is who actually earns prediction-market revenue, what the ETF filings look like, and the regulatory risk attached to each name.
Settlement grades the result. Closing line value grades the price, and you can read it the moment trading ends. Here is the formula, the reference instant on each platform, two worked examples, and the costs that come off a gross number.
Large trades can direct attention, but size alone does not establish skill, private information, or a future result. This guide explains how to review the available evidence without turning a diagnostic into a prediction.
Across 9.46 million resolved Polymarket positions, implied prices track real outcomes closely: a 5-cent contract resolves true 3.5% of the time, a 95-cent contract 98.4%. The gap opens in the middle, where positions priced 45 to 65 cents win 6 to 9 points more often than the price implied. Here is the calibration curve, the method behind it, and how the per-trader edge is distributed across 8,705…
Two S-grade accounts up more than $9.6 million each built Humbert positions all afternoon. An hour before first serve, one sweep filled both of their Bonzi bids at 32 cents and locked their books. What is left still leans Humbert.
Four women's World Cup qualifiers close out tonight with every favorite priced like a near-lock. I sorted the holders: the most profitable accounts and the biggest loser are all on the same chalk.
New York is up 2-0 and only a coin-flip favorite for Game 3. I sorted the holders: the two most profitable accounts in the market are both on the Knicks, and so are two of the worst.
Sports categories make up 614,458 of Polymarket's markets (roughly half) and 33,303 of Kalshi's (two-thirds), with $11.6 billion in large-trade flow tracked across both. Prediction markets have quietly become a sports product, and the betting industry is now racing to catch up: both DraftKings and FanDuel launched CFTC-regulated event-contract products in 2026.
A sportsbook sets a line and takes the other side of your bet. A prediction market lets the crowd set the price and collects a fee on the volume. That single difference in who holds the risk changes the pricing, the limits, and the data. Here is the primer for anyone in the betting industry trying to make sense of Polymarket and Kalshi.
Zverev was the favorite at Roland Garros and the smart money agreed. Then I sorted the holders: 85 percent of the entire Zverev side was one S-grade wallet, while sharp whales quietly sat on Cobolli.
Polymarket and Kalshi both pay you to post resting limit orders. The mechanics look nothing alike. Here is the actual reward formula on each platform, what eligibility means in practice, and why 0xinsider shows both as a single per-day number.
When the same prediction trades at two different prices on two different exchanges, you can buy the cheap side, take the expensive side, and pocket the gap. Here is the math, the two setups that actually work, and the friction costs that quietly eat your edge.
Better data, a faster live feed, and a terminal that leads with live positions instead of a tape of trades. Live now across Polymarket and Kalshi, in time for Polymarket's CLOBv2 cutover.
Kalshi's standard taker fee schedule runs from $0.01 to $0.02 per contract and peaks near 50¢. On maker-fee markets, the raw maker multiplier is 4x lower. Here’s how the math, rounding, and funding costs work.
Polymarket charges taker fees across most market categories. Here is the current formula, the per-category schedule, what a trade actually costs, and how the Maker and Taker Rebate Programs return part of those fees.
A trader drops $400K. The price moves. You find out six hours later on Twitter. That information gap costs real money. Today, it closes.
Ten wallets. $122.1 million in combined profit. But only three of them carry an S-grade, and the biggest political winners are all graded C. The highest earners on Polymarket are not the best traders on Polymarket, and the gap between those two things is the most useful thing on the leaderboard.
A fresh wallet deposited $32,500 and bought Maduro capture shares a week before U.S. forces moved in. It cashed out over $400,000. Every major geopolitical insider case started with the same pattern. You can set up alerts to catch the next one.
This page documents a retired March 2026 behavioral-label study and explains why its cohort figures are no longer published without an auditable source.
In the March 2026 snapshot, traders active between 8-12 UTC average +$21,786 in P&L. Traders active in the 16-20 UTC window average -$14,099. The $36,000 cohort difference is an association, not proof that changing trading hours changes returns.
Stop refreshing the terminal. Set up custom alerts for the exact trades you care about (by category, minimum size, and wallet type) and get notified instantly.
The previous NBA analysis mixed conflicting trade totals with hardcoded charts and no reproducible dated source artifact. Those claims and visuals are withdrawn.
Two traders both show six-figure numbers on screen. One has banked steady realized profit across 300 resolved markets. The other is sitting on open positions that have not settled. The grade leads with realized banked profit and screens out unsettled and tiny-sample wallets, so it separates money actually won from paper gains. Here's how to read it.
When both sides of a prediction market show 80%+ odds, something looks broken. It is not. Here is the mechanics behind overround, bid-ask spreads, and illiquid markets.
A new way to spot conviction before the market moves. Large Positions surfaces traders accumulating massive positions through many small trades, the kind of activity that flies under every other radar.
Following a wallet organizes the activity 0xinsider has ingested for that trader. It does not provide exchange-complete or zero-latency monitoring.
The beta program closes on March 15. Here's what changes, what stays, and why locking in now matters.
A practical guide to reading and interpreting the Polymarket order book, from basic bid-ask mechanics to advanced depth chart patterns used by professional traders.
The Kelly Criterion tells you exactly how much to bet when you have an edge. Learn the formula, avoid the pitfalls, and apply it to real prediction market trades.
Unusual timing, size, or wallet clustering can justify further research. None of those signals proves identity, intent, coordination, or inside information.
Stop betting on individual markets and start thinking like a portfolio manager. Learn how to diversify, size positions, and build a prediction market portfolio that compounds.
Learn how to separate portfolio totals, market diagnostics, sample depth, risk, and execution evidence before drawing conclusions from a trader profile.
Elections are the biggest events in prediction markets. Learn the strategies, timing patterns, and analytical frameworks that separate winners from the crowd during election season.
Large trades move markets and signal information. Learn how to read the 0xinsider Terminal, interpret signal scores, and build a strategy informed by large trader activity.
Correction: the previous wallet comparison and cohort benchmarks were not backed by a committed, reproducible query. This guide now explains what evidence to require before comparing traders.
On July 14, 2026, addyfizzle10 had 10,702 positive-P&L stored markets, 139 negative ones, and 10 zeros. Polymarket's canonical portfolio total was -$42,731.
Kalshi publishes the trade, not the trader. Here is what a public Kalshi print contains, why no Kalshi whale leaderboard can exist, and where large Kalshi trades show up.
Kalshi public prints now stream in beside Polymarket activity as we ingest them. Filter by platform, size, and direction.
A source-verified correction for gabagool22, separating Polymarket's $868,862.52 portfolio total from 28,620 stored resolved-market rows.
A corrected guide that separates feed records from ledger completeness, heuristics from findings, and authored examples from measured market behavior.
We're opening up full access to beta testers. Join our Discord, grab a code, and get the full platform, free.
This announcement introduced planned Kalshi public-print and cross-platform market analysis; Kalshi does not expose trader identities in its public trade response.