🤨D-Day Dump

*This one is long, make sure you click through to the site to read it, because your email provider might cut off the bottom of the email and there are some good charts in there at the bottom!*

Welcome to the Daily Report, where I review the day’s market moves and their drivers. I share signals for two portfolios, along with many Special Opportunity trades throughout the year.

• Short-Term - 4-to-10-day trades, up 58% in 2025 and up 24.82% in 2026 (vs. 12.4% on SPX as of 8/19/26)

• My retirement accounts - Mean reversion systems averaging 10–20% long term

All setups are backtested, and trades are executed at day’s end or on the open tomorrow. I personally follow these signals—full transparency.

Let’s review what happened today!

If you have questions, go here and watch the videos and read the FAQ. And feel free to send me a message - you’ll hear from me soon if you don’t anyway.

Markets had to process Geopolitics and Big Scott Bessent moves today. We opened with Semis gapping down and they didn’t end up rallying by the end of the day. It’s hard to go up when NVDA dumps 3%.

Bonds rallied on the news that Bessent was prepared to spend all the Government’s Money supporting the Bond market into elections. His puny ovature last week to spend up to $4 Billion was laughed at by the Bond Market, so he came back and said he has $1 Trillion to spend on it (not true, but the news made it seem that way). The point is there could be significant Government Intervention in the Bond market like we haven’t seen since the Fed was snapping up Corporate Bonds in 2020.

How long the Bond Rally lasts is anyone’s guess. Bessent hasnt’t actually bought any bonds yet though and my inclination is that the Bond market is going to make him spend some money here to prove he’s serious about Election handouts.

I’ve shown this chart before, but it’s setup long here (Weeklies are not shown but also setting up Long). I know a lot of people are already long bonds though - it’s been a tough trade for over a year or more now. They are interesting to me down here.

Usually, they rally when this happens. We are trading them to the long side now. Obviously, this is a risky trade because NVDA earnings are Wednesday and it’s going to be a Binary event.

Trump is escalating and so is Canada. That’s not great.

Canada’s stock market has benefited greatly from the Tariff Man since Liberation Day. It’s up almost 70% off the April Lows (Pink Arrow), vs only 58% for the S&P500. However - it doesn’t mean things are looking great for Canada here. It’s flashing Weekly Top Signals. The price of oil dropping at the same time they get hit with a ton of Tariff bricks is just not going to be a great thing for their economy to process.

STLA 0.00%↑ STLA (Stellantis) is the worst car maker in the US. Really terrible. Like - do not buy. They have been getting crushed and today’s Tariff news is not good for them. It’s already hard to find parts for cars they make - it’ll get worse if this continues and we end up with legit 50% Tariffs on the junk moving back and forth between Canada and the US.

And we can’t finish the note without discussing the Iran War. It’s not getting any better. Trump and Iran continue to trade barbs and today Bessent said that China was going to be on the hook for Sanctions if they wouldn’t play ball in the War. That’s a new escalation and could be quite negative for stocks again if we go into a 2018-2019 style Good Ole’ Fashioned Trade War, while in the Middle of a Hot War and a Bond Market Crisis. Companies like AAPL or NVDA are on the table for Chinese retaliation as well as Rare Earth Restrictions and Agricultural Purchases from China could crush US Farmers again (causing the US Government to have to Bail them Out, which will drive Rates UP in the US because it’s more unbudgeted and un-paid-for spending).

We played this game once before in 2018-2019 and all we got was a Volatility (some of the highest Vix readings ever) and a Christmas Bear Market. It was memorable for all the wrong reasons.

We are going to cover Vix - it is important. Options Flow is telling us something here.