Trump, Bibi, and Annexation

Some comments about the Trump administration and Israeli annexation of Judea and Samaria (aka the West Bank):

1. The Saudis, Turks, Qataris and Egyptians aren’t going to support Israeli annexation of Judea and Samaria.

2. The overwhelming majority of Israelis wanted a deal to bring home the 20 living Israelis being held prisoner by Hamas in Gaza.

3. President Trump got the Israeli hostages released by promising the Saudis, Turks, and Qataris and Egyptians that there would be no Israeli annexation of parts of Judea and Samaria. There would have been no deal without that.

4. Therefore, it’s now US policy that Israel shouldn’t annex parts of Judea and Samaria.

5. Netanyahu knew all this and agreed to the deal because he, like the Israeli public, wanted the hostages freed.

6. But it’s not at all clear this deal is going to hold. Hamas has already renounced three of the central pillars of the deal: (I) That it would disarm completely, (II) that it would give up on ruling Gaza, and (III) that it would give back the bodies of murdered Israelis it is holding.

7. Of course the Trump administration is still hoping the release of the Israeli hostages will be followed by other diplomatic achievements like formal relations between Israel and the Saudis. Netanyahu and his government are hoping for that too. That’s why they’re working so hard to try to keep the deal on life support even though several of its central pillars have already been renounced by Hamas.

8. But neither the Trump administration nor the Netanyahu government are stupid. They know the deal is on life support. They also know the Israeli public won’t stick to the terms of the deal indefinitely if Hamas has clearly reneged, and the Turks and Qataris are either unwilling or unable to enforce them.

9. Many Israeli parliamentarians, both to Netanyahu’s left and to his right, believe the deal has already collapsed. They also believe Britain, France and others need to get some serious blowback for declaring that they’ve “recognized” a Palestinian state that doesn’t exist. And so these parliamentarians feel justified in scoring political points at Netanyahu’s expense by advancing (as yet non-binding) legislation to annex pieces of Judea and Samaria that the Israeli public would like to see remain a part of Israel.

10. President Trump, VP Vance, and Netanyahu himself, are completely justified in thinking this behavior in the Israeli parliament is irresponsible, insulting, and tiresome—and in saying so in strong terms so the Saudis don’t just announce that the deal is off and walk away.

11. Still, the behavior of Israel’s parliament is just a sideshow. The real issue is that Hamas has clearly reneged on its side of the deal, and that the Turks and Qataris appear to be either unwilling or unable to enforce it.

12. That means that sooner or later, President Trump and Netanyahu are going to conclude that they’re whipping a dead horse, and that it’s time to move on. At that point Netanyahu may decide to go forward with the annexation of some parts of Judea, Samaria, or Gaza—if Israeli public opinion supports that as a reply to Starmer and Macron. At that point President Trump may decide to just accept that, or even to give Bibi the green light, depending on what else is happening (with Ukraine, with Iran, with Israeli elections, etc.).

13. But it’s also possible that the death of the deal with Hamas will give birth to a different deal. In 2020, Netanyahu gave up on annexation of the Jordan Valley in exchange for a peace agreement with five Muslim countries. It’s not impossible that Netanyahu will take Israel to the brink of annexation again—only to exchange it for a peace deal with a few more Muslim countries.

14. President Trump was justifiably pleased with that outcome in 2020, after he got sick and tired of waiting for the Palestinians to come to reasonable terms. Could be that he’ll end up reaching a similar conclusion this time around as well.

Photo credit: President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hold a joint press conference on September 29 at the White House. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)