Since 2024, I’ve been analyzing the debut fiction deals every 6 months and sharing my take-aways here, and once again I’m excited to share what I’m seeing in the deals (because…data nerd!).
For a little context and more on my evaluation methodology, you may want to visit the previous posts as well:
2025 Year-End Analysis: Fiction Debut Deal Insights
2025 Year-End Analysis: Agents and Agencies Behind the Deals
2025 Year-End Analysis: Fiction Genres Topping Agent Requests & Publisher Acquisitions
2025 Mid-Year Analysis: Fic Debut Deal Insights
2025 Mid-Year Analysis: Agents and Agencies Behind the Deals
2025 Mid-Year Analysis: A Deeper Dive into the Small Presses
2024 Year-End Analysis: Women’s Fic Debut Deal Insights
The below insights are based on my analysis of 212 debut fiction deals reported in Publishers Marketplace between January 1, 2026 and June 30, 2026, and this is the first in a 2-part series. (Note: I omitted debut deals that were story collections rather than novels for this analysis.)
A few things I noted in the data…
5 agencies were responsible for just over a quarter of the debut fiction deals in the first half of the year: UTA, CAA, WME, Trellis, and Sterling Lord.
26 percent of the debut fiction deals were sold at auction.
27 percent of the debut fiction deals were sold in a pre-empt (i.e., the publisher makes an offer before the book goes to auction), not including pre-empted foreign rights.
26 percent of the deals were multi-book deals (48 two-book, 7 three-book, and 1 unspecfied).
Small presses Alcove Press and Olive Press kept pace with the Big 5 imprint acquisitions. While Lake Union isn’t a Big 5 imprint, it is owned by the Big A, so not exactly small press. Both Alcove Press and newcomer Olive Press also accept direct submissions. (See more on Alcove here. )
Upmarket fiction by far dominated deals in the last 6 months. More on that below!
Before we dive into the agents and agencies behind the deals, a quick reminder…this is a small sample from the first half of this year only. Just because an agent or agency isn’t listed here doesn’t mean they’re not awesome. It simply means they have not sold many debut fiction manuscripts in the last few months. This is only one data point of many that querying authors should consider. Also, please, please do not submit to these (or any) agents without first checking out their wish lists and which genres they rep.
There were an additional 28 agents who each sold 2 debut novels since the beginning of 2026.
As you’ll see below, genre breakdowns for the last 6 months are trending similarly to what we saw in 2025’s Q3 and Q4.
One important caveat…the genre determination is based on the limited info in the PM announcement. Sometimes a genre isn’t as obvious from this, and sometimes a publisher decides to position a book differently later. This can be especially difficult to parse when it comes to Literary versus Upmarket. And genre-blending is very common in Upmarket, in particular, so a book might be an Upmarket thriller, but only categorized here as Upmarket. Keep in mind we’re looking at overall trends, not exact numbers.
Finally I want to throw some data from QueryTracker into the mix. The two below QueryTracker tables show data from the last 12 months: the genres most frequently submitted to agents (Table 5), as well as the genres agents requested most frequently from those submissions (Table 6).
It’s always a fascinating convergence of data to not only see where potential holes in the market may be—i.e., the discrepancy between what’s being submitted and what agents are requesting—but also comparing this to what’s actually being acquired. However, it’s also important to remember the QueryTracker data is for the last year rather than 6 months, and a lot can change in that time period. A slowdown in a particular genre might not yet be evident from the QueryTracker data since it’s compiling from farther back.
The data raises some questions for me…
Where are you, Upmarket writers? Upmarket and book club fiction writers, I know you’re out there but Upmarket didn’t even crack the top 10 of genres most frequently submitted. Yet it’s the 4th most requested genre by agents in the last year (up from #8 where it was 6 months ago). And, as indicated in the earlier table, Upmarket undoubtedly stole the show on debut deals in the last 6 months, accounting for about one-third of the total deals.
Could RomCom make a (slight) comeback? The RomCom market has been oversaturated, but we’re seeing a hint of demand on the agent side—albeit in the #10 spot falling from #9 six months ago. Yet it’s still hanging in there with seemingly little supply on the writer side. However, with only a handful (5) of RomCom deals in the previous months, publisher acquisitions don’t exactly point to an increase right now. Still the continued agent interest has me wondering if we’ll start to see an uptick of this in the future. Or perhaps it’s just a sign that agents are still looking for those elusive RomComs with a uniquely high concept hook.
Similarly agents seem to still be looking for Romantasy debuts even as the supply seems to be dwindling. Agent and industry expert Erin Niumata wrote a must-read post on the state of the Romance market that Romance writers shouldn’t miss.
Which Fantasy books are actually landing deals? Fantasy remains extremely competitive as both the most frequently submitted genre to agents, as well as the most frequently requested. But Fantasy is only about 8 percent of the debut deals in the last 6 months…so what does it take to hook a publisher? We’ll look closer at what’s landing in this genre in the follow-up post.
Is Horror slowing down? My guess is yes. The deals have dropped by half in the last 6 months, and though it still shows as #5 on the agent request list, that might be because it was so in demand earlier last year.
If you’re intrigued by which genres are most in demand right now, come back in 2 weeks when I’ll dive deeper into the types of books being acquired right now.
I like to remind writers that I don’t share this info to encourage writers to write what’s trending. HOWEVER, writing a book is a business and you need to understand the industry to be successful in it, and that includes which genres are selling right now and which are not as in demand.
If the data has you worried about your genre, author and industry expert Karin Gillespie addressed this in a great post entitled The Art of the Author Pivot.
That said, you still need to write a story that resonates with you emotionally or it will never be engaging enough for readers. The trick, of course, is writing the stories that will engage both you and the marketplace.
Need a little help? I’m also really good at finding the through line in a hot mess manuscript (even if it’s incomplete!). Reach out to me below and let’s talk.
Every deal above started with a manuscript an agent couldn’t put down.
If you’re writing Upmarket, Women’s Fiction or Book Club Fiction, I can help you get your manuscript pitch-ready.
Schedule a free call to find out how!
I’m Heather Garbo…I’m a certified book coach for upmarket, book club and women’s fiction writers (re)discovering their writing voices in midlife. My story planning, drafting and revision methodology empowers aspiring novelists to transform fledgling ideas and messy manuscripts into engaging stories…because no woman should regret not pursuing her creative dreams nor doubt the value of her voice. Learn how to work with me at www.garbobookcoaching.com.
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