De Chinese Wouden, maandag 10 augustus: vakantie

De Chinese top is nog op strandvakantie in Beidaihe. In Brussel zitten we midden in de lege augustusmaand. Die rust geeft mij mooi de kans om de draad langzaam weer op te pakken. Vandaag een verzameling nieuwsberichten om weer bij te komen met de grootste verhalen.

De belangrijkste lijnen zijn de voortdurend trends in de handel tussen Europa en China en het verhaal over een Canadese NAVO-stagiaire gearresteerd in België op verdenking van spionage voor China. Daarnaast zijn er meer details over de manier waarop de Duitse economieminister Reiche een strenger Duits Chinabeleid zou saboteren.

Ook zijn er ontwikkeling op het gebied van de machines voor het maken van halfgeleiders. De Chinese pogingen om een DUV-machine te maken, zouden enig succes gehad hebben. Het Nederlandse ASML heeft het monopolie op de meest geavanceerde EUV-machines en domineert de markt voor de iets oudere DUV-types. Die DUV-machines zijn echter nog altijd de werkpaden van de chipindustrie en een Chinese concurrent zou een grote stap voor Peking zijn.

Veel is echter nog onduidelijk. Zowel de kwaliteit en financiële haalbaarheid van de Chinese machines als ook de afhankelijkheid van niet-Chinese onderdelen zijn nog erg onduidelijk. Interessanter is wel de vraag hoe nauw men ASML heeft nagemaakt. Als dat dicht genoeg bij elkaar ligt, dan zou de Chinese producent bijvoorbeeld ook sommige onderdelen kunnen maken voor bestaande ASML machines in China. Met die mogelijkheid kan Peking zich wapenen tegen nieuwe Amerikaanse verboden voor ASML op onderhoud van DUV-machines in China.

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2026/07/31: EU-China trade war: Beijing turns the screws as Brussels tests limits of restraint – SCMP: ‘Europe’s own listings had been carefully calibrated, intentionally omitting major Chinese actors to ensure its own member states would support the package amid fears of retaliation. Beijing, on the other hand, went for the jugular.’ 🇪🇺
2026/07/27: China hits Europe’s defence industry in response to the EU’s 21st sanctions package against Russia – OSW 🇪🇺

2026/07/21: Taiwan gains role in Ukraine drone supply chain, but still depends on China – Focus Taiwan: ‘At its annual forum in June, the DSET said Taiwan exported about 139,000 drones in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing the 123,000 drones it exported in all of 2025, with most of them destined for Ukraine via Poland and the Czech Republic.’ 🇺🇦

2026/07/30: Meer details bekend over opgepakte Canadese Navo-stagiaire, die wel degelijk verdacht zou worden van spionage voor China – De Standaard: „Een bron binnen de veiligheidsdiensten identificeert de verdachte als Claire Z., een dertiger die een jaar geleden naar Bergen kwam voor een stage bij het militaire Navo-hoofdkwartier Shape (Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe). Haar stage daar zou volgens onderzoek van Knack, Le Soir, La Lettreen Follow The Money tot januari 2026 duren, maar werd met zes maanden verlengd.”
„Volgens Reuters zou de jonge vrouw stage hebben gelopen op het IT-departement van Shape”

2026/08/03: Czech businessman detained by Beijing faces espionage charges and could be part of swap with Chinese spy – EU Observer 🇨🇿

2026/07/28: China woos Slovakia with AI and robotics pitch as EU trade friction mounts – SCMP: ‘the Slovak president’s three-day visit to China, the first by the country’s head of state in 16 years.’ 🇸🇰

2026/08/07: China and Belarus to stage ‘Swift Eagle 2026’ airborne drills in Hubei – Xinhua 🇧🇾

2026/08/03: Watching China in Europe - August 2026 – Noah Barkin ‘Even if he hangs on, it is unclear whether Merz would have the authority to push through a major rethink in China policy. His Economy Minister Katherina Reiche, who survived the cabinet cull, has openly defied him in recent months, […]’ 🇩🇪🇪🇺
Noah Barkin heeft enkele paragrafen over de acties van de Duitse economieminister Reiche en haar ministerie. Als de beschuldigingen kloppen, dan heeft het Duitse EZ de afgelopen tijd bewust geprobeerd om het Chinabeleid van de Duitse regering en de EU te saboteren. Reiche zou zelfs een verzoek om mee te doen met het gezamenlijke paper van Frankrijk verborgen hebben voor de bondskanselier.

2026/08/09: Chinese EV sales surge to new high in Europe putting tariffs under scrutiny – The Guardian 🇪🇺

2026/08/07: Germans emerge as Europe’s biggest China hawks as economic pain begins to bite – SCMP: ‘A combined 49 per cent of German people polled considered China to be primarily a rival or an adversary, way ahead of the second of the 13 countries polled, which was 43 per cent in France’ 🇩🇪
2026/08/06: Trust the numbers: Germans are open to a more hawkish China policy – ECFR 🇩🇪

2026/08/09: German trade deficit with China grows as Beijing relies less on European industry – Reuters: ‘German exports to China fell over 12% year-on-year to just under €37 billion ​between January and June’
‘German imports from China rose 8.9% to €91.8 billion over the period.’ 🇩🇪
2026/08/07: Germany shows ‘surprising resilience’ amid Chinese export surge – Euractiv: ‘The increase was driven largely by production gains in the country’s flagship automotive sector, which grew by 3.6%. This offset declines in energy-intensive and machinery manufacturing, which fell by 1.8% and 3.9%, respectively.’
‘Chinese customs data released on Friday revealed that net exports from the world’s second-largest economy surged by 23.9% year-on-year in dollar terms in July. Chinese shipments to Germany rose by 17.4%, while imports fell by 2.7%.’ 🇩🇪

2026/07/30: EU expected to probe Balkan construction material imports over suspected Chinese tariff-dodging – Euronews 🇪🇺
2026/07/28: Commission acts against dumped imports of polyamide yarns from China – European Commission 🇪🇺

2026/08/04: Q: On June 29, China and the EU held the first meeting of the China-EU Trade and Investment Consultation (TIC), and preliminarily agreed to hold the second meeting of the TIC this autumn. We have noted that the two sides have maintained intensive consultations recently. Could you share with us the latest progress? (MOFCOM Regular Press Conference July 30, 2026) – Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China 🇪🇺

2026/08/03: EU countries recast ‘Made in Europe’ around products, not countries – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺

2026/07/27: German officials are working behind the scenes to identify Chinese economic vulnerabilities that they could exploit if the EU finds itself in a trade war – Bloomberg: ‘The German government is informally mapping China’s weaknesses by analyzing trade flows, supply chains and company-level data, according to people familiar with the matter. The exercise is aimed at identifying where China remains dependent on German and European technology’ 🇩🇪

2026/08/03: China won’t apologise for overcapacity – The Economist’s Chaguan: ‘what foreign companies are competing against is not just supple, hard-driving Chinese firms but a whole-of-state approach to industry. Foreign companies, however big, stand little chance against a Leninist developmental state that has attained China’s size, wealth and modernity. […] The fury over Reiche has been building for months – and not just in Berlin and Brussels.’
2026/08/02: China-Konkurrenz belastet laut BDI die Wirtschaft – Handelsblatt 🇩🇪

2026/07/31: Spain courts Chinese firms but looks to EU for ground rules – Reuters 🇪🇸
2026/07/24: CATL signs 2 GWh sodium-ion battery supply deal in Bulgaria – ESS News 🇧🇬

2026/08/05: 中美经贸需要“合作清单”，而非“覆盖清单”（钟声） – 《人民日报》（2026年08月05日 第03版） 🇺🇸
Een commentaar in het Volksdagblad onder de gezaghebbende pennaam ‘Zhong Sheng’ doet het al voorspelbare beroep op de strategische stabiliteit van Trump en Xi om te proberen Amerikaanse stappen in de techoorlog tegen te gaan – hier door een recente stap van de FCC te veroordelen.

2026/08/04: How big is China’s reported DUV semiconductor lithography breakthrough? – Gregory C. Allen
Niet gelijk in paniek raken.
2026/07/28: China starts production of home-grown immersion DUV chipmaking tools, source says – Reuters
2026/07/27: China begins mass production of homegrown DUV chip tools – The Information

2026/08/05: Samsung and SK Hynix test Chinese chip tools as hedge against US risks – Reuters: ‘The memory chipmakers began testing AMEC etching equipment about two years ago, when uncertainty was mounting over whether Washington would continue allowing them to import U.S. chipmaking tools into China, two of the sources said.’ 🇰🇷
Dit is misschien wel structureel belangrijker nieuws voor ASML. Chinese chipmachines zouden er altijd al komen, gezien Pekings toewijding aan zelfvoorziening – de vraag is of niet-Chinese producenten ze gaan gebruiken.

2026/08/09: Apple has been testing memory chips from China’s CXMT 长鑫存储, according to people familiar with the matter – WSJ: ‘across product lines including iPhones and MacBooks, according to people familiar with the matter, as the U.S. company addresses a memory crunch during the artificial-intelligence boom.’ 🇺🇸

2026/07/31: Chinese military researchers tap US AI models to train defence systems – Reuters 🇺🇸

2026/08/05: China’s commerce ministry targets US firms and drone exports after FCC, Xinjiang actions – Reuters 🇺🇸

2026/08/03: China issues revised regulation on protection of IC layout-designs – Xinhua

2026/08/07: Belgisch helikopterbedrijf, ook in Nederland actief, toch niet overgenomen door China – NOS Nieuws 🇧🇪

2026/08/05: Under Patel, FBI forges unprecedented law enforcement ties with China and Russia – Reuters: ‘The partnerships, known internally as "working groups," represent a major break with the past and have raised concerns within the broader counterintelligence community’ 🇺🇸

2026/08/08: The US is burning through weapons in Iran. Russia and China are taking note. – The New York Times: ‘“It’s impossible for that not to have a significant effect on the decision calculus of Russia and China,” said Mr. Karako, who has been tracking U.S. weapons stockpiles. “They may do something quite deliberate and at the time of their choosing, because keep in mind — we’re going to take years to reconstitute.”’ 🇺🇸

2026/08/06: Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby can’t get invited to Beijing – POLITICO: ‘“His number one goal right now is to speak at China’s National Defense University, and he has everyone push it in meetings,” one of the people said. “He’s obsessed.”’ 🇺🇸

2026/08/07: President Donald Trump touted US$3 billion in US investments in critical minerals mining at a meeting Friday with top industry executives aimed at weaning the US off supply chains dominated by China – Bloomberg 🇺🇸

2026/08/06: Two Chinese coast guard personnel marked as ‘martyrs’ after South China Sea collision last year – Reuters: ‘the first apparent acknowledgement of fatalities in the high-profile ‌collision between Chinese vessels. A Chinese coast guard ship collided bow first with a Chinese naval destroyer on August 11 [last year] as they manoeuvred against Philippines coast guard operations’ 🇵🇭

2026/08/07: India says talks with China stressed need for border peace to boost ties – Reuters 🇮🇳

2026/08/05: Nepal overruled its own security agencies to cancel Tibetan studies conference under Chinese pressure, officials say – The Kathmandu Post 🇳🇵

2026/08/03: PRC State Council beefs up framework for exit bans – Safeguard Defenders

2026/07/12: China’s biggest economic problem is not K-shaped divergence, but an economy that is cold overall – Li Daokui, Translated by Bill Bishop’s Sinocism

2026/08/06: No longer just a producer of cheap consumer goods, China is exporting more high-value items that underpin global manufacturing – WSJ: ‘China’s dominance over greater portions of global supply chains is making the country’s export machine even more formidable—and resilient against tariffs, which tend to target finished goods.’
2026/08/09: China July factory-gate inflation eases to 3-month low, CPI slows – Reuters: ‘China’s producer price inflation eased more than expected in July to its weakest in three months, while consumer inflation also cooled, official data showed on Sunday’
De onbalans versterkt zich alleen maar verder.

2026/07/30: CCP Politburo sets out economic priorities for H2 of 2026 – Xinhua: ‘Pragmatic and effective incremental policies will be timely introduced, the meeting said, urging intensified efforts to step up counter-cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand and optimize supply, […]’
‘The meeting noted that macroeconomic policies should be more forceful and effective’
2026/07/31: Chinese premier chairs State Council executive meeting – Xinhua: ‘The meeting called for improving the effectiveness of macro policy implementation’
‘It urged efforts to effectively expand domestic demand, including by rolling out a package of strong measures in areas with great potential and strong driving effects, accelerating major projects set out in the 15th Five-Year Plan, […]’
Zie ook de problematische cijfers onder China economie.

2026/07/30: China Focus: 20th CCP Central Committee to hold fifth plenary session in October – Xinhua: ‘the session will study major issues on advancing the Party's full and rigorous self-governance’
Dit is er eentje om in de gaten te houden. Ruim op tijd aangekondigd voor een Plenum, heeft deze als doel om Xi Jinpings disciplinecampagne te kronen een jaar voor de personele opschudding bij het 21ste Partijcongres van oktober 2027?

2026/08/03: Senior CCP official visits prominent experts – Xinhua
Het begin van de strandvakantie van het Chinese leiderschap in Beidaihe. Verwacht ook de komende week nog rust.

2026/08/02: Tibetan Buddhist landmark transformed into racecourse named after Chinese Red Army – Tibet Watch

2026/08/05: Once again, child dies in gene-editing trial in China, rekindling debate on transparency and safety – STAT

2026/08/09: Is China’s party newspaper carrying more stories highlighting women’s role as mothers? – SCMP

2026/08/07: Broken Chain: China’s Coast Guard and the Long Game of Isolating Taiwan – CommonWealth Magazine

2026/08/08: Taipei says China’s traffic control order for Taiwan Strait during typhoon is ‘ridiculous’ – Reuters 🇨🇳

2026/08/07: Taiwan’s military drills suggest deeper alignment with the US – AP 🇺🇸
2026/08/06: President Lai takes part in anti-decapitation drill during Han Kuang exercises – Focus Taiwan

2026/08/09: Taiwan’s 2027 defence spending to rise 16%, official media reports – Reuters

2026/08/07: Interior ministry asks Constitutional Court to dissolve pro-China political party – Focus Taiwan

2026/08/09: Taiwan has never been independent and has never been a country, KMT chair Cheng Li-wun 鄭麗文 says – Taipei Times: ‘“If one day we need to change the status quo, how and in what manner should it be changed? It must align with the will of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait,” she said.’

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