Senate Pathways

The Senate map is coming into focus as we approach Labor Day, and it is consistent with the year-long trend of things looking progressively brighter for Democrats.

When this cycle began, there was little talk of Democrats re-taking the Senate. That’s because there was no path to a Democratic majority that didn’t involve winning multiple states that Donald Trump had just won emphatically.

Then Democrats started over-performing in special elections across the country by the kind of double-digit margins that they would need to win those Senate races, and it became tempting to imagine what might be possible in a wave election. Still, it wasn’t until the bottom fell out for Trump and his party that the possibility of a Democratic Senate majority entered mainstream discourse.

One characteristic of a wave election is that unlikely opportunities present themselves as Election Day approaches. We are seeing that happen right now. The map is expanding into states that sound ridiculous to discuss. And while Democrats may ultimately lose some or all of these long shot contests, their presence in the conversation is an excellent measure of the slope of the political playing field this year.

Republicans may maintain control of the Senate when all is said and done, but they face a surprisingly steep climb to make it happen.

As of now, Democrats have several ways to net the four seats they will need for a Senate majority. That alone is remarkable.

Let’s take a look at the ways Democrats can assemble a majority by exploring the states where they are over-performing, holding their own, and threatening to be competitive.