Wales watching - The midweek briefing

Reporting by the Newsletter Team

Hello and welcome,

We have a lot for you this week. We are going to start by looking at the vote in the Senedd last night where Plaid failed to pass their supplementary budget. Plus we have Reform UK apparently taking secret pictures of Will eating lunch…

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Last night Plaid Cymru lost a vote in Senedd to pass their supplementary budget. Let me give you some very brief context before we assess what it means.

So the UK Government recently wrote off lots of debt at English councils that had been built up delivering Additional Learning Needs (ALN) education in England over the years. To be clear, they were not spending more on ALN in England, they were writing off debt.

This generated some extra money for Wales, so the Welsh Gov had £247m of day-to-day spending unallocated.

Plaid wanted to allocate this to reduce NHS waiting times, expand childcare, and extend free school meals. Initially, they had no additional share of this spending allocated to ALN.

To pass this budget Plaid needed the support of either Labour, the Tories or Reform. The Greens said they would support them, but even with that they were still four short of a majority. Reform and the Tories were not really options, meaning Plaid needed Labour to get their supplementary budget through.

Long story short, Labour demanded that Plaid spend more on ALN. Plaid agreed to spend an additional £40m per year for the next three years. Labour instead wanted £100m of the £247m spent on ALN by April next year.

Then yesterday, the day of the vote, it emerged that the trade unions NAHT Cymru and ASCL Cymru were in dispute with the government over a 3.5% pay deal and ALN funding. On Tuesday there were protesters on the steps of the Senedd making a lot of noise about this.

Welsh Labour then announced that they couldn’t support the budget while the Welsh Gov were in dispute with the unions and called on Plaid to withdraw it. The vote ended up going ahead, and Plaid lost.

Let’s start by saying that there is 100% a huge shortfall in ALN support, funding and provision. That is beyond any doubt.

But it is very clear that Labour saw this as an opportunity to give Plaid a bloody nose. There is significant frustration within Labour with what they have perceive to be a blasé approach from Plaid to running a minority government. In simple terms, they feel that Plaid are acting like they have a majority they don’t have.

Plaid, on the other hand, have accused Labour of having no fixed negotiating position and that Labour were invited (and attended) numerous meetings with ministers and officials.

There was genuine shock among Plaid that Labour let the budget fail. They thought they would, at the very least, abstain from the vote to allow it to go through, as Plaid did for Labour’s budget earlier in the year.

Two things are really obvious here:

• Plaid are not used to being in government.

• Labour are not used to being in opposition.

Plaid were, in my view, naive. You have to operate in the reality you have, not the one you want. They do not have a majority and I think it’s fair to say they went into this believing Labour would support them in the end. They were slow to clock that there was a risk and it was probably not smart to have no additional ALN spending in their initial offer. Of course, they will argue that the whole point of devolution is that Wales can make different decisions to England, but you also have to be savvy operators.

I also find the “Labour are voting with Reform” argument from Plaid a bit tedious. You could say that “Reform voted with Labour”. In Westminster, Plaid have voted with the Tories against Labour several times. Welsh Labour voted against Plaid’s supplementary budget. There was no alliance with Reform.

However, at the same time, I think Labour have been opportunistic to the point of reckless and have overplayed their hand. Yes, Plaid don’t have a majority but they are demonstrably the most senior party with more than four times the amount of MSs that Labour have.

When you are in a negotiation, you have to strike a balance between fighting your corner and living in reality. I have no doubt that Labour MSs passionately believe in increasing ALN support, but it’s worth bearing in mind that the previous Labour government only allocated £9m to ALN this year, and Plaid offered them a 400% increase on that. Plaid made big concessions to Labour, but Labour seemed determined to flex their muscles.

But there are wider points to make here:

• We have just under four years to go of this Senedd term and the most important thing is that we have a parliament that works. Neither Labour nor Plaid can let this keep happening.

• They are each other’s only options. Plaid and Labour are not miles apart in terms of where they sit politically on most issues. When it comes to passing votes in the Senedd, the maths means that the Greens and Lib Dems are, from an arithmetic standpoint, not really relevant. The Tories and Reform offer a vision for Wales and public services that is so far from Plaid/Labour’s that they are not realistic partners. If Plaid and Labour are serious about actually tackling Wales’ problems, they are going to need to grow up, get a grip and collaborate meaningfully.

• Devolution is at stake here. I don’t want to be dramatic, but both parties need to realise that this is bigger than them. No parties have done more than Labour or Plaid to further the idea of Wales having its own democracy and parliament. But devolution needs to justify itself to the people of Wales, and there are many within the Senedd itself who would vote for its abolition. The primary architects of devolution need to fight for it to function - not be content that it merely exists.

Perhaps the most frustrating thing about the budget situation is how quickly politicians shift their messaging based on the situation.

Back in the last Senedd, when Labour needed Plaid to get their budget through, Rhun ap Iorwerth said it “wasn’t for us to pass Labour’s budget for them”. During the budget dispute he also said:

“They are gaslighting us and trying to pass on the blame to us for their own failures.”

However, perhaps some of the biggest examples of how political arguments can turn on a dime came from Mark Drakeford and Eluned Morgan.

Here is a video of Mr Drakeford furious that Plaid wouldn’t back a Labour budget in 2025. The sentiment is nearly exactly what we have heard in recent days, just in reverse.

Have a watch of this:

Drakeford said to Rhun ap Iorwerth when he was trying to get Labour’s budget through:

“Believe me, people will see through the argument that you make that, somehow, because this budget doesn’t deliver everything that you would like to see in it, you would rather deny people in Wales all the investment that comes with this budget.”

You can also see Eluned Morgan saying something similar here:

At least once a week I use my security pass to enter the Welsh Parliament estate and sit in the Senedd canteen. I base myself there for a few hours and invite any politician or staff member who wants to talk to me to do so.

It’s a key part of my work. It helps me understand what is happening in Welsh politics, to inform my reporting and keep my finger on the pulse. Since the Senedd election I have been joined by members of literally every party, including Reform.

Yesterday I spoke to several backbench Plaid MSs, one of the Green MSs, Labour advisors and senior Welsh Tories. It seems that someone in Reform saw me speaking to the Plaid MSs and took a picture.

The official Reform UK Wales X account then posted this:

Given the abysmal quality of the photo I can only assume the taker was sprinting at the time.

This was clearly not the work of some overzealous intern because it was reposted by Reform leader Dan Thomas as well as two other Reform MSs.

Several hours later the post was deleted.

I am dealing with this through the official channels but given that other news sites are covering it, I want to address it here.

The ability of the free press to scrutinise and hold politicians to account is vital in a democracy. The deliberate misrepresentation of a journalist’s work from the official opposition inside the Welsh Parliament is very concerning and, in my view, is an attempt to discredit and intimidate reporters. It is not acceptable.

Ken Skates MS has been confirmed as Leader of Welsh Labour, after receiving unanimous backing from the Welsh Labour Senedd group.

Mr Skates said:

“I am deeply honoured to have the unanimous backing of my colleagues in the Senedd in seeking the leadership of Welsh Labour.

“I joined the party as a 14-year-old, and my belief still stands that no child’s future should be determined by their background. That no young person should be judged on anything other than the efforts they make and the decency they show to others.

“The Labour movement for me is a movement for fairness, justice, security and liberty. It is a movement that seeks to empower people and communities, to fight against injustice, intolerance, nepotism and cruelty.”

People using the Irish language, Scottish Gaelic and Cornish on campaign material could face prison time under new plans by Reform and reported by Byline Times.

An amendment to UK Labour’s new elections bill tabled by Reform in Westminster and signed by all the party’s MPs has demanded all election material be “in the English language or the Welsh language” only.

Using any other language in material would be a criminal offence punishable by up to six months in prison or a fine. It would apply in the whole of the UK.

Last week we reported Andrew RT Davies’ outrage over the new environment committee being contacted by Climate Cymru, a climate action group.

The group have now published an open letter to committee chair James Evans accusing Mr Davies of “promoting misinformation” after he accused Climate Cymru of “dictating the agenda” on social media after they sent an email to committee members requesting a meeting.

Climate Cymru said they had contacted politicians in good faith to discuss “very real, tangible crises” including flooding, heatwaves, insurance and food costs and nature loss. You can read the full letter here.

The Welsh Government have extended their control of a Welsh fire service.

South Wales Fire and Rescue Authority (SWFRA), which oversees South Wales Fire and Rescue Service, had commissioners appointed in February 2024 after a damning report found widespread bullying, harassment, discrimination and an inability from management to tackle problems.

Siân Gwenllian MS, Cabinet Minister for Housing, Local Government and Planning, said this week that although progress had been made including a complete refresh of senior management, not enough has been done to return the force to local control and that oversight by the four appointed commissioners will now continue until after next May’s local election.

The latest Health Education and Improvement Wales (HEIW) figures show that 383 newly qualified nursing, midwifery and other healthcare graduates have been left without NHS job opportunities.

These are people who embarked on their courses on the promise it would lead to a career, but now say their life is on hold. They are facing major financial stress and are even considering walking away from the NHS altogether.

It seems crazy we have nurses looking for work when our NHS is so short staffed.

Politicians including the Green Party’s Paul Rock have called on the Welsh Government to work urgently with health boards to address the issue.

In plenary on Tuesday, Rhun ap Iorwerth made a statement about legislation his party is planning to bring forward, including:

1. A bill to strengthen the rights of people living in private rental accommodation in Wales.

2. Community Right to Buy Scheme - A plan to create a scheme that will enable local groups to identify assets deemed to be of high value to their community, giving those groups the first right of refusal if the current owners decide to sell.

3. “Rural-proofing” - This is legislation designed to ensure the needs of people in rural areas are considered in policy-making.

Ministers also pledged to deliver 20,000 additional social homes by 2030. Their target will run from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2030 and will cover homes let at social rent or intermediate rent. It will include properties that are acquired by councils and housing associations, as well as new builds.

Stuart Ropke, CEO of Community Housing Cymru (CHC), called the announcement “bold and ambitious” but called on the Welsh Gov to “take urgent action to dismantle the barriers holding back delivery. We need a long-term funding guarantee, faster planning decisions, and immediate solutions to environmental gridlocks like nutrient neutrality that are delaying much needed homes.”

Wales is not unique in facing a housing crisis, but differs from England in some respects. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has found that previous rent frameworks in Wales have meant social rents - those provided by councils and social landlords - are only 17% behind market levels. In England, they are about 50% below.

The lack of affordable housing and rent levels regularly crop up among the big ticket issues in Wales. We covered previously how Welsh Labour were unable to meet their social homes target on time. A big part of measuring Plaid’s success will depend on whether they can meaningfully tackle the housing issue.

Four councillors have quit Neath Port Talbot Council’s Welsh Labour group ahead of the local elections next May.

Councillors Rhidian Mizen, Oliver Davies, and David Whitelock each made separate announcements indicating their disillusionment with the party on social media in the weeks after Welsh Labour’s crushing defeat in the Senedd election.

Their departure from the Labour group was confirmed at a council meeting last week. They will now sit with the council’s Independent group while Cllr Leanne Jones (who was NPT’s deputy leader in 2021) also quit the party to sit as an unaffiliated member.

In a social media post, Cllr Mizen said he had felt “increasingly disillusioned with the direction Labour is now taking and the policies being pursued”, while Cllr Davies said he no longer believes Labour “represents the working class”.

Cllr Whitelock told his followers the decision was “heart wrenching” but said:

“There is no direction from either London or Cardiff as to where the Labour party is heading with very little or no thought for our pensioners and our less well off.”

NPT’s Labour group is the largest opposition party, with the council led by a coalition of Independent and Plaid Cymru members.

Wales is this week experiencing another wave of extreme heat after weeks of very little rainfall.

On Sunday night, a major incident was declared as firefighters responded to wildfires in Conwy, Gwynedd and Flintshire. Although no casualties have been reported, health advice was issued to keep doors and windows closed while hillsides burned in the area – that’s not an easy task when temperatures are in the high-20s to mid-30s.

Research from Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimate 2,700 people may have died from heat-related causes in England and Wales during the exceptional hot weather in May and June.

Scientists believe the planet has warmed by about 1.4C since pre-industrial times, with compounding impacts on human health and the natural world.

All this underscores Wales’ increasingly pressing need to adapt to rising temperatures and increase efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

One well-established measure to improve resilience to extreme heat is increasing urban tree canopy cover. Planting more trees in densely populated areas mitigates the heat island effect, while enhancing public spaces, and providing better urban wildlife habitats.

Wales has stalled in this goal. A 2016 report from Natural Resources Wales identified the benefits to public health, and mapped overall tree canopy growth from 2006 to 2013 – noting Wales has a significant opportunity to improve.

But the latest update to that report, published in 2020, found there had only been a 0.07% increase in overall urban canopy cover by 2019. And while the overall cover has basically stayed the same, the number of individual trees has decreased and findings reveal an ageing population of urban trees which are not being replenished.

A debate tabled by Reform chief whip Llŷr Powell today may push Plaid to clarify its position on measures to control the spread of Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB).

The party proposes the Welsh Government make “targeted wildlife control” a part of its approach to bTB eradication if the Bovine TB Technical Advisory Group recommends it (to date, it hasn’t).

Badger culling has not been used by the Welsh Government to control the disease since 2012. According to the RSPCA, new incidents of bTB in Wales have still declined by 40% since 2010.

But the compensation bill to remunerate farmers affected by control measures has outstripped the budget allocation every year since 2021, according to an FOI response from the Welsh Government.

More than £111.5m in compensation has been issued since 2021 to farmers who have had animals slaughtered to control the spread of Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB). The budget allocation for compensation payments over that period was £64m.

Around 10,000 cattle are slaughtered annually in Wales to control the spread of bTB, at considerable public expense and inflicting a heavy toll on affected farmers’ livelihoods. In 2024/25, just shy of 13,000 animals were slaughtered costing the taxpayer £28m in compensation payments – the heaviest year since 2021.

Wales’ strategy to control bTB has differed from that of England’s where badger culling has persisted. The RSPCA says 247,000 badgers have been killed as part of its disease prevention programme since 2013. But the charity says there is a growing body of evidence that badgers play a limited role in the spread of the disease, with the majority of infections occurring within and between herds. A new strategy for England published last month will see a vaccine deployed in cattle from 2030.

Animal rights groups including the RSPCA and the Badger Trust remain concerned over what path Plaid Cymru will take. Its manifesto included references “implementing a new approach to managing bTB – one which recognises wildlife as a source of infection and enables scientifically validated control methods”.

That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading.

Will and the team

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