Brexit: what now?

Note: This was originally published June 28, 2016

The staggering failures that led to Brexit need to be articulated for us to learn. As a citizen of the UK living in California, I’ve watched this from a global perspective, where the implications seem astonishingly bad: the UK has set its course to irrelevancy, the EU’s toward breakup, and the World’s toward recession. That may sound melodramatic but it is not so ridiculous: Scotland has expressed intent to leave the UK and join the EU, parties in 5 nations across the EU have already called for their own referendum to leave, and the global stock markets are down 3–4%.

Let’s pause on the EU for a second. The EU has been a massive force for good in the world; it’s ushered in peace on the continent, and abroad; spearheaded the world on climate accords; basically legislated the world — on safety, environmental, and even human rights standards; and is a beacon of hope for peace and prosperity and cooperation globally. It’s a cornerstone of global order and prosperity not to be lost.

I see four key mistakes of the British establishment that led us here:

1. The question of leaving the EU should never have been put to referendum. The Civil Service should have advised HMG that it was too dangerous to carry out this campaign pledge given current affairs, the economic and security costs of exit, and the complexity of understanding the issues at stake.

2. After the referendum was announced, HMG should have ensured the referendum require overwhelming support to pass. They should have included at least a 60% threshold for such a sweeping action — very reasonable for such a critical decision; allowed the younger (16&17 year olds) to vote, as they did in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum; and postponed the vote until well after the Syrian refugee crisis.

3. Politicians should have properly campaigned. They should have presented the key case for the creation of the EU, which was lost entirely in the debate: peace and security. The value of peace on in Europe for 70 years is priceless. They should have explained what it means to leave — beyond the economic impact, there is the huge task of recreating all the regulations and trade agreements; after which Britain will still remain effectively subject to all EU laws (including on freedom of movement) if it wants to trade with the block — i.e. they would have to accept the laws with no voice in shaping them, as is true for Norway and Switzerland. Statesmen-like speeches should have been given communicating this critical message, with all PM’s unified to show cross party unity.

4. The core press should have held both sides’ feet to the fire, not allowing the key pieces of misinformation — lies really — that were the cornerstone of the Leave campaign to be accepted. This is particularly true for immigration (e.g. a key reality missed is that most refugees come from outside the EU, where the UK has control regardless of EU membership), and for the true costs of the EU to the UK taxpayer.

The PM, the Ministers, the Civil Servants, the Parliament, the press — they all failed. It is the essential responsibility of these prominent members of society to think about key strategic decisions in a calm manner and do the right thing for the British people — even when unpopular. They all had to fail in series for this mess to transpire. It is a failure of the entire British establishment.

Furthermore, this was an act of utter selfishness: selfish on the part of the politicians, in particular David Cameron and Boris Johnson, who put their political careers above the interests of the nation. Selfish on the part of voters over the age of 50, who didn’t think about the opportunities and interests of the younger generation. Selfish on the

part of all Brits for being entirely disinterested in the major negative repercussions for the rest of the world. It’s one thing for a people to decide to screw itself in isolation, it’s quite another when it brings about large harm on others externally too.

Phase I: Do not accept it.

1. UK Parliament should debate and block it. Parliament is sovereign and the referendum not legally binding. MPs can reject it. What should they say to Brits to justify this? First, the Brexit vote was not a convincing majority; second it did not represent the will of younger generation who will have to live with this; and, third, it is the job of a Parliament, within a representative democracy, is to do what is best for the country, even if unpopular. Parliament goes against popular opinion all the time; why should this be any different?

2. The people, especially the young, should protest until they are heard. This is their future and it is they who have to accept the long-term consequences.

Phase II: if the above fails then

To rescue the EU, and global order, the following steps are needed:

1. The EU should make clear the major disincentives for leaving. They should (a) be vocal about the mess that the UK is now in; and (b) afford the UK no favours in the settlement process, though stop short of punishment.

2. The new UK PM should act to negotiate the leave terms swiftly.

3. The UK Parliament should keep all the EU legislation — this is also what is best for the UK economy — in exchange for remaining a free trade partner. Basically, the UK should become a supporting outsider like Norway or Switzerland.

4. Scotland should join the EU prior to UK exit from EU (& N. Ireland should follow suit if they also want). (a) The UK PM should enable a 2nd Scottish referendum immediately. (b) EU should devise an accelerated accession plan for Scotland.

5. EU should assemble, reform, and strengthen , showing it can adapt and and proceed bolder and stronger. It should accelerate without the UK holding them back and invest in deeper political integration, common security and defence policies, passing free trade agreements with the U.S. and Canada, developing closer ties with China and India, and advancing environmental accords with the U.S.

But first up, the UK Parliament faces a choice: piss off 52% of the electorate temporarily, OR screw 100% of it permanently. It’s obvious. Selfishness led us into this mess; we need clear headed reason to get us out of it. With both the HMG and opposition collapsed, we are left with Parliament as the key actor. Members of Parliament: I urge you to do what is right, not what is popular.