If Mark Carney Is Playing Chess with Trump, He Is Quickly Running Out of Pieces

Last night, I read an article written by Catherine Morrison and published in The Toronto Star that Prime Minister Carney has asked the provinces to end their U.S. alcohol boycotts:

OTTAWA - Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says Prime Minister Mark Carney has asked provinces to restock American alcohol on their shelves as Canada finalizes a trade deal with the U.S.

I will tone down my reaction to that news which I posted on social media last night by simply saying I do not like it. Not only is there zero probability any concessions will result in a long-lasting trade agreement with Trump — remember CUSMA, an agreement he demanded we negotiate during his first term but then violated as soon as he started his second term? — but now the Prime Minister is apparently making ones he cannot unilaterally make; he also seems to have made them without prior approval by the provincial governments themselves, who do have to agree to them.

Some people responded to me by saying it does not matter because Canadians will not buy the alcohol anyway, but even if that is true, Carney is yet again sending a signal to Trump that he will continue making concessions if he threatens us. He has made so many of them to Trump for nothing in return since coming to power roughly 18 months ago that any strategy to be “tough” is simply not credible anymore.

Now, that strategy could be credible again in the future, but Carney needs to stop conceding long enough to demonstrate we really mean it this time.

Also, what if the provinces do not end their boycotts? Then Trump will have a new excuse to say we do not negotiate in good faith, and use that excuse to hit us again.

These repeated one-way concessions could easily backfire on Carney politically, too, because many NDP and CPC supporters voted Liberal last year under the belief he would stand up to Trump better than anyone else. It has become increasingly obvious this is not happening, so a recent poll from Leger indicates nearly half of Canadians want any new deal to be immediately followed by a general election, while a majority want no more concessions at all:

A new Leger poll found that nearly half of Canadians surveyed (47 per cent) believe a federal election should be called if a new Canada-U.S. trade agreement is reached, so voters can express their opinion on the deal. This compares to 35 per cent who do not think a federal election should be called in the event of a new deal, while 18 per cent were unsure.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, support for an election is strongest among Conservative voters, at 67 per cent, compared with 34 per cent among Liberal voters. Elsewhere, 51 per cent of Bloc Québécois voters and 45 per cent of NDP voters support calling an election.

When it comes to the details of a deal, the Leger poll found that the majority of Canadians want to limit concessions in trade negotiations and keep more aggressive responses on the table.

For example, 74 per cent support a special tax on electricity sold to the U.S., while 70 per cent support restricting U.S.-owned companies from bidding on Canadian government contracts and 70 per cent support taxing oil and natural gas exports.

Meanwhile, 64 per cent of Canadians support banning the sale of U.S. liquor in Canada, while 63 per cent favour taxing potash exports and 59 per cent support tariffs on a broad range of U.S.-manufactured goods.

Overall, 56 per cent of Canadians surveyed want the federal government to take a hard line and make no more concessions, compared with 31 per cent who favour flexibility if needed.

…

Conservative voters are generally more open to concessions than Liberal, NDP or Bloc Québécois voters — but even so, 51 per cent of Conservative voters still favour taking a hard line in the negotiations.

To be clear, if an election were held today, “polls currently predict a Liberal win, with the latest Liaison Strategies federal tracker giving Carney’s party an 11-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while the PM’s approval has risen by three points to 60 per cent.” Nonetheless, it appears a majority of Canadian voters are getting tired of repeatedly reducing our bargaining power with one-way concessions.

Also, if the CPC smartens up and kicks Poilievre to the curb, the probability is not zero their new leader will attract voters who simply could not support Poilievre. Just like Conservatives were wrong to think voter hatred for Justin Trudeau would carry over to whomever took over from him, Liberals could be wrong to believe voter hatred for Poilievre will carry over to whomever takes over from him.

Another response I sometimes get on social media is Carney is “playing chess” with Trump, and we need to just “trust” him. First, I do not like the chess analogy because if we add “5D” to it, then we sound like MAGAts when they praise their Dear Leader. I do not approve of appropriating MAGA talking points to complement our PM.

Second, I do not feel comfortable with “just trusting” anyone. Mark Carney is a human being, who like all of us is flawed, so putting blind faith in him — or anyone else — is dangerous for a democracy. The reason why we have elections is because no one can be trusted to always act in the best interest of their constituents.

Carney is a brilliant economist, particularly when it comes to Money & Banking and International Finance. He has also been surprisingly impressive as a politician despite his complete lack of background in it. But as Elon Musk taught us all, being brilliant in one thing does not make one brilliant in everything.

Similarly, a career of negotiating with power players around the world means nothing when he is now facing a blithering idiot who does not care about negotiating in good faith, or even keeping any of the promises he makes. Carney seems to be approaching Trump like he is no different from anyone else who has been on the other side of the table in the past; he seems to be approaching him as if they can eventually find a way to come to a rational, long-term settlement, but that will never happen with Trump. A toddler is a more rational and reasonable negotiating partner than Donald Trump.

Anyway, if we really do want to view this as a chess game where we have to “sacrifice a piece” to get a deal which protects jobs and increases economic certainty in Canada, then how has that been working so far? We sacrificed the Digital Services Tax (DST) piece, and Trump came back at us with demands to give up another piece in the form of the Gordie Howe Bridge tolls. So we sacrificed that piece, too, and he immediately came back with demands to sacrifice even more pieces, including alcohol boycotts and supply management. It has been revealed Carney is all for sacrificing the U.S. alcohol piece, while it is still unclear what he conceded — if anything — in relation to supply management, or for that matter, tying ourselves even more closely to the U.S. with respect to natural resources and national defence.

We also sacrificed our oil & gas and potash pieces, but I cannot blame Prime Minister Carney for that in light of the Maple MAGAts who run Alberta and Saskatchewan, especially Danielle Smith with her constant threats of a “national unity crisis” if she does not get everything she wants. Danielle Smith and Scott Moe have selfishly taken our most powerful pieces away from us, and while sad, Carney had little choice there.

But the fact remains that we keep sacrificing pieces in this chess game for nothing in return except continued uncertainty over what will come next. Eventually, we will run out of pieces and the game will be over.

To anyone who thinks our latest concessions to Trump will actually incentivize him to stop attacking us, despite all past evidence to the contrary, keep in mind what I wrote yesterday on his new threats against countries like Canada over “trans-shipments”.

Sure, he probably thinks that means we are smuggling trans people across the U.S. border, but it still shows that even though our latest “deal” is not yet finalized, he is already looking for excuses to break it.

In summary, every concession we make sends a signal to Trump that we will roll over for him whenever he makes a threat. Even if a concession seems “meaningless”, it is far from being so because he takes them all as invitations to keep hitting us. It also sends a message to non-Liberal partisans that maybe they backed the wrong horse in last year’s election, which only makes Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre more likely.

The only way to stop a bully is to fight back. I agree we cannot expect miracles from Carney in just 18 months, but he still needs to demonstrate he is trying to get a good deal for Canadians. By repeatedly offering concessions for nothing in return, and by also apparently making moves to tie us even tighter to the U.S., many Canadian voters will eventually feel buyer’s remorse and give their votes back to the NDP or CPC; they might also decide to not even vote at all.

Canadians have demonstrated patience with Carney since he became Prime Minister in early 2025, but patience can only last so long.