Markets digesting the recent post-FOMC rally in risk. Nasdaq squeezed out a 10%+ gain in just 5 trading days with SPX slightly behind at ~7%. So far Wed/Thu NDX has pulled back ~3% as we head into NFP tomorrow morning. VIX continued to drop as implied vols came in post earnings & short term implied correlations are in low single digits. A huge surge in breadth over last week as all equal weight indices made new ATH.
‘Goldilocks’ scenario for tomorrow ~80k, too hot of a print risks yields surging & risk tanking, too soft and we are back to ‘hard landing’ scenario.
Final revisions have so far been positive, breaking a large red streak from 2025.
Markets seemed relatively unconcerned about tomorrows print, with SPX straddles going at ~55-60bps, the lower end of 5 year range.
Historic NFP data (from https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm):
Final revision sum:
Overnight SPX Straddle performance:
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