Nigel Farage first, bin second

Some initial thoughts on Farage, the UK’s Trump, winning in Clacton against a bin -

(1) Farage is the most talented politicians in the country, but he is not a man of sound character. When he is rattled, this comes out. So, rattle him (without - ever - threatening his physical safety)

(2) Restore UK are a serious political force and genuine challenge for Reform. Eventually, Reform will need to take a clearer stance on how far they opose or embrace the white identitarianism of Restore. Whatever happens in the short term, in the medium term, I anticipate they will increasingly embrace it.

(3) It is still plausible, and probably likely, that Nigel Farage could become Prime Minister. He will fail as PM: Faragism will implode like Trumpism is imploding now. Most likely, the post-Farage authoritarian populists will be more disciplined and hard nosed.

(4) At the same time, we are living through the deaths of social democracy and constitutional conservatism. It is an illusion, one too frightening to les go for most reasonable people, that a profitable return to the centre is possible for Labour and the Tories.

(5) Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch have very difficult jobs. Political success is available to them, but unlikely, as it requires threading discourse and policies which seem incompatible through the eye of a needle.

(6) Stylistically, what’s needed is boldness, populism - public discourse shifting closer to, but not too close to, private sentiment - and a firm defence of counter majoritarian institutions, including independent media and the BBC.

(7) Communicatively, what’s needed is ongoing, informal, visceral communication with UK citizens. For example: “hello dear citizens, it’s 11pm; here are two things we tried to accomplish today and here is how well it badly we fared”.

(8) Ideologically, what’s needed is an emphasis on solidarity and the public good, a defence of minority rights on the basis of these values rather than hyper-identity politics, a relentless focus on economic disempowerment and the restoration of the dignity of labour, strong emphasis on borders and the integrity of the country.

(9) In foreign policy, the goal should be stabilisation of democracy at home until such point as strategy on the international scene can be meaningfully articulated and backed up by action. As things stand, UK democracy is too turbulent to generate a strategic foreign policy. At the same time, it is possible to avoid the most farcical evasions of strategic purpose - such as telling Ukraine that we are with her “as long as it takes” - as long as what takes? And on another point - stand up to Trump works out better for everyone.

(10) We need to re emphasise that conflict is healthy and can be can be engaged in without making enemies of your opponents. Politicians should tell citizens that politics is a basic human activity that expresses all the loveliness and ugliness of human nature, but does not have to be toxic.

(11) Politicians need to acknowledge the crisis of trust, rather than gaslight citizens that is is only there because of misinformation spread by malign actors. I will be saying more on this in the near future.

Naturally, this list could go on, but I shall stop here.