Quick Hit

On the road and heading back to HQ so just a quick one this morning. Played the Merion Golf Club’s East Course the day after final round of US Amateur. Same course, same pin positions, tees moved up, rough cut from six inches to four inches and the weather was perfect. Let’s just say that the golf course is stunning and BRUTAL. No first cut. Fairway or you’re searching for your ball in the weeds. Huge respect for the young men who played 36 on Sunday. Cannot even imagine. One of those bucket list experiences that teases a golfer: “Next time I’ll know how to play it.” LOL!!

Back to markets. Bond markets continue to drive the bus. T-rates up across the board yesterday putting pressure on equities. Shave three points off of a bullish VIX Mix. 11 of 17 components in the green and only one on the bearish end.

Eight green bars in a row and nothing on the dashboard that looks scary.

We’ve been commenting on the relationship between volatility (VIX) and stocks (SPX) and signs of anomalous behavior. Here’s a look that we haven’t shared in a while. The chart maps a measure of spot/vol beta that looks back over 21 trading days (roughly one calendar month). That little green line is the long-term moving average of this measure. You can see that 2026 has been a bit bipolar around that average and is currently closing in on the average from both sides suggesting that the relationship is not out of whack relative to its history.

That’s it for now. Back tomorrow morning.

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