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Global Politics: US x Iran
Domestic Politics: Housing Bill, Ukraine Aid, Supreme Court
Economics: OpenAI Lawsuits, Trade Deficit, AI Chip Selloff
World Cup Final: Spain vs Argentina
Following the collapse of the MOU, the President formally notified Congress that the war with Iran was resuming. In this section, focused entirely on Iran, we reran a handful of the forecasts we first used when the conflict broke out in our March 5th newsletter, plus many others. This week:
US x Iran
What will happen to the Iranian government:
93%: The probability that the current clerical regime maintains control of Iran through the next 90 days.
4%: The probability that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) unseats or overthrows the clerical regime of Iran in the next 90 days.
<1%: the probability that pro-Shah forces establish effective governance over the majority of Iranian territory, including Tehran, in the next 90 days?
At the beginning of the conflict, the VICO model was less sure of Iran’s future, giving the clerical regime just a 66% chance of survival. Now the model is almost certain that the regime will survive the conflict.
The Conflict’s Future:
12%: The United States to cease hostilities or Iran to capitulate on key US demands in the next 60 days.
2%: US ceases operations in the next 30 days.
86%: The probability that the US and Iran continue exchanging ‘tit-for-tat’ strikes through the next 14 days.
1%: The probability that US troops land in Iran to occupy or invade territory in the next 30 days.
16%: The probability that the US deploys ground troops into Iranian territory for short-term operations, excluding a full-scale invasion or occupation, in the next 60 days.
75%: the probability that the US successfully strikes Iranian power plants in the next 14 days.
The VICO model remains highly confident in a drawn-out conflict, much like it was in March. However, the model now provides less variance by honing in on the likelihood of continued targeted strikes, rather than leaving the door open to a full occupation.
The Strait of Hormuz:
15%: The probability that Iran loses the ability to militarily control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days.
Despite US efforts to target Iranian weapons used to threaten vessels in the Strait, the model remains at just 15% for the regime to lose control of the waterway.
45%: The probability that Iran at least partially reopens the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days.
8%: The probability that the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports in the next 30 days.
82%: The probability that the US escorts ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the next 60 days.
The ROAD to Housing Act officially became law after the President declined to either sign or veto the bill for 10 days. Senator Lindsey Graham’s passing leaves the Senate without an important voice on foreign policy. In this section we take a look at the future of legislation Senator Graham championed on Russia and Ukraine. And we’re also taking a look at the possibility of a new Supreme Court justice. This week:
We Called It: The Housing Bill
In our June 25th newsletter, the VICO model gave a 78% chance for the ROAD to Housing Act to become law even though Trump had announced he would not sign the bill.
While many in the media played up the story and suggested Trump may veto the bill outright, VICO saw through the noise and delivered an accurate assessment of where the bill was heading.
Housing: What Now? (Next Three Years Scenarios)
78%: The manufactured and modular housing sector experiences a massive production surge, boosting annual manufactured housing shipments from 100,000 to between 140,000 and 160,000.
68%: The Department of Housing and Urban Development allocates $1.5-2.0 billion in competitive planning grants.
58%: The built-to-rent sector experiences an unprecedented capital influx, with institutional investments in dedicated BTR communities increasing from 35% to 45%.
Ukraine Aid
82%: The probability that the US provides another package of military aid to Ukraine in the next 60 days.
55%: The probability that the US passes the ‘Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026’ or a similar bill with sanctions on Russia in the next 60 days.
The VICO model argues that such packages are rare, but that the current alignment between the Executive Branch and Congress may push the package through in the near term. The VICO model explicitly credits Senator Graham for helping to create bipartisan support for the bill.
Supreme Court
22%: The probability that President Trump replaces at least one Supreme Court Justice in 2026. (Polymarket: 36%)
The VICO model is more skeptical of a replacement this year than Polymarket, arguing that historically strategic retirements occur in the May-July window. Given that Alito has already hired law clerks for the Fall term, and Thomas has explicitly stated he “has nowhere to go,” the model argues neither is likely to retire in the short term.
What if a Justice Retires? Who Would Likely Replace Them?
25%: Andrew Oldham
25%: Patrick Bumatay
15%: James Ho
15%: Amul Thapar
12%: Aileen Cannon
The VICO model argues that any of a handful of young conservative judges could get the nod, with ideological conservatism and loyalty to Trump being deciding factors.
Amidst its ongoing lawsuit with the state of Florida, OpenAI is now also being sued by Apple for allegedly stealing trade secrets. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit in May reached a 14-month high of over $75 billion as AI imports continue to grow. And finally, AI chip stocks saw a selloff that dropped Micron down more than 10%, eliminating over $100 billion in market cap in just one day. This week:
OpenAI Lawsuits
Apple
12%: The probability that Apple wins its lawsuit against OpenAI in court.
72%: The probability that OpenAI pays Apple in a settlement before the case concludes.
The VICO model argues that over 90% of high-stakes tech trade secret cases settle out of court. In particular, with an upcoming IPO, OpenAI is highly incentivized to reach a swift monetary settlement to reassure investors.
Florida
12%: The probability that the state of Florida wins its lawsuit outright or receives a settlement of at least $500 million from OpenAI.
74%: The probability that another state besides Florida announces a lawsuit against OpenAI in the next 365 days.
The VICO model points out that State AG’s exhibit herd behavior, with 3-5 states typically copying a first mover. Combined with the political appetite to sue OpenAI, the model believes the company’s legal headaches are just beginning.
Trade Deficit
8%: The probability that the US monthly trade deficit falls below $50 billion in the next 6 months?
18%: next 12 months?
18%: The probability that the US monthly trade deficit reaches at least $100 billion in the next 6 months?
22%: next 12 months?
The VICO model estimates limited movement towards the extremes in either direction on the US trade deficit.
AI Chip Selloff
46%: The probability that the PHLX Semiconductor Sector index finishes the year lower than its current price.
The VICO model claims that while long-term AI growth is likely to be strong, Q2 saw an 88% surge in the index’s price. Such booms are often followed by significant volatility or mean reversion, providing a higher baseline probability for a bumpy rest of the year.
Spain vs Argentina
Even with Spain slightly favored by most sportsbooks, the VICO model is more bullish on Spain, giving a nearly 75% chance for Spain to lift the cup.
The VICO model argues that Spain’s fullback pressure is likely to make Messi less effective, as he will be forced to play defense more, especially against a possession-heavy team like Spain.
“Spain's 72% win probability reflects their structural advantage in midfield density and technical execution — Argentina's path to victory narrows to set pieces or a single De Paul-orchestrated transition”
About Us
VICO empowers decision makers to quantify and navigate event risk. Forecast, simulate and monitor political, geopolitical and economic events.
Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io
Thanks for reading VICO Future Monitor! This post is public, so feel free to share it.
Methodology and Copyright Notes:
All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.
Our proprietary AI models are rigorously backtested and do not rely on any betting market information.
All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.
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