The Kiev Kabuki

The last few days of diplomatic thrashing between Washington and Kiev looked less like statecraft and more like a bad circus run by sleep-deprived carnies. Anyone trying to decode the mess through Axios, WSJ, or Politico would walk away half-blind and fully deranged. Time for a rundown before the bats return.

• June: NABU sinks its teeth into one of Zelensky’s inner paladins, Chernyshov, the man who once presided over “National Unity,” whatever that means in a country duct-taped together by panic and Western credit.

• June 20: Chernyshov bolts for the border like a small-town treasurer caught cooking the books, then slinks back once the noise dies down.

• Late June–July: Zelensky and his faithful handler, Yermak, try to neuter NABU with a legislative scalpel.

• July 22: The knife slips through. Bill passes. Zelensky signs immediately, like a man speed-running the downfall of his own administration.

• July 31: With Washington breathing down his neck, the whole stunt gets walked back.

• Oct 26: A close business associate of Zelensky and Mindich, Zuckerman, leaves for Israel.

• Nov 9: Zelensky’s close associate, Mindich, also departs for Israel urgently.

• Nov 10: A fresh corruption geyser erupts, spraying half the government in muck.

• Nov 11: Ex-Defense Minister Umerov disappears into the international ether. Officially, he’s on business in Turkey and Qatar. Rumor mill says he’s stateside. Kiev denies everything, naturally.

• Nov 12: Zelensky drags the heads of NABU and SAPO into a room and tries to stomp out the investigation. It doesn’t die.

• Nov 13–16: Yermak tries to weaponize the SBU against SAPO’s brass. They don’t bite either.

• Nov 18–19: Chernyshov finally gets clapped in irons. Gravity wins.

• Nov 20–22: Umerov leaks back into view through suspiciously polished Telegram posts, then appears in the flesh. Turns out he was in the US, knocking around in the shadows with Trump’s people over that infamous 28-point peace contraption. Sending Umerov for delicate negotiations is like sending a chainsaw to perform heart surgery, but Kiev was clearly out of contact.

• End of November: Kiev tries a desperate “Wag the dog” maneuver, leaking the holy “28 points” to Axios. Predictably, all hell breaks loose. Talks collapse, military aid evaporates, Russians pound Kiev with missiles like it’s a national sport, and a 19-point knockoff deal appears. Kiev grumbles, then “agrees.” Zelensky starts begging for a face-to-face with Trump. Moscow stays silent, which is never a good sign.

And back in early February, I said this:

“Zelensky is worried that Moscow and Washington will hammer out a deal and impose it on Ukraine. He is right to be concerned, but there isn’t much he can do about it. Trump and Putin will strike a deal, and Zelensky’s acceptance of it will lay the groundwork for his exit from the stage. Trump has all but confirmed that his administration is in direct talks with the Kremlin, effectively bypassing the Kiev regime.

It goes without saying that Trump wouldn’t want any Ukraine peace deal or provisional ceasefire to be seen as a bilateral agreement between Russia and the US. While there may be some theatrics to make Trump seem tough on Putin, the issue is more complex than appearances alone, as Zelensky is not the sole power in Ukraine.”

And that’s exactly how the cards fell. No clairvoyance involved. Anyone with two functioning neurons and a tolerance for geopolitical farce could see it coming. The 19-point sideshow isn’t the finale; it’s the overture for Zelensky’s exit. He wants his meeting with Trump not to be about haggling over borders, but to secure his own hide. The man needs guarantees, and fast, because the investigations are circling like sharks.

Soon enough, you’ll hear more noise around Ruslan Stefanchuk, the parliamentary Speaker and the only legal spare tire in Ukraine’s constitutional jalopy. Ukraine’s succession scheme is charmingly primitive: there’s the President, and then there’s the Speaker. The Speaker doesn’t even get full powers, which means he’s basically a designated scapegoat. Stefanchuk knows he’s about to inherit a flaming wreck of a state while Zelensky and his coterie sprint for the exits. So he’s busy thumping the nationalist bible, shouting about Crimea and sacred soil, hoping the coming storm overlooks him.

It took some industrial-grade arm-twisting, but Trump managed to cough up something resembling a “peace deal” by Thanksgiving. Not peace, just paperwork. Ukraine’s de facto partition is now entering its bureaucratic chrysalis. Western support is drying up; the Americans have checked out, and Europe’s wallet is empty. The war will grind on, uglier and lonelier. The Russians will keep pushing, and the ghost of that 28-point deal will stagger back into the spotlight. Probably sooner than anyone wants to admit.

The carnival continues.

UPDATES

Just a few quick updates that don’t warrant a separate write-up.

2025-11-29: Yermak’s “resignation” had all the joy of a tax audit. He came out swinging, whining to reporters about betrayal, humiliation, and how he’s a pure little snowflake who’s never so much as smelled corruption in his life. Naturally, the anti-corruption cops raided him immediately. They carted off his gadgets, which probably contain enough kompromat to fuel an entire season of a Netflix drama Ukraine would rather not produce.

What’s going to change? Basically nothing. His outraged-victim routine feels like shabby theater. Sure, he got booted from his chair, but nobody in Kiev believes he’s drifting far from Zelensky. These guys are lashed together now, a political buddy movie where neither can afford to let the other wander off unsupervised.

Ukrainian outlets have been whispering that Zelensky sent both Umerov and Yermak abroad to front “peace talks” just to get them the hell out of Kiev and out of NABU’s reach. Maybe that explains the sudden desire to have Yermak negotiating from foreign hotel lobbies, but Umerov’s trip to the U.S. looks like something he cooked up himself.

And the theory that the Americans had a fat dossier on him and tried to flip him into a more pliable peace envoy is aging frighteningly well. Forty-eight hours ago, Yermak was thundering that Ukraine wouldn’t cede an inch of land. Then, poof: search warrants, career interrupted, and Umerov is vaulted into the role of chief negotiator.

This is the same Umerov whom no one has ever accused of excessive brilliance. Ukrainian state media even briefly claimed that General Budanov, the military intelligence chief, would take over the talks. But then Washington apparently tapped Zelensky on the shoulder, and suddenly Umerov’s the guy.