The Incredible Shrinking Ukraine

There's no profound revelation here—just a caffeine-fueled rant on geopolitics after dark. According to the Times, Trump is "contemptuous" of Zelensky. Apparently, he's also "convinced of Ukraine’s weakness." Reuters, cited by the Times, notes that Trump's new "minerals" deal with Ukraine is shaping up to be far more brutal than earlier drafts. Before you roll your eyes at the typical legacy media spin, realize there's an actual, nontrivial story buried beneath the predictable noise.

Let's cut straight to the chase: Ukraine's latest deal is harsher precisely because Zelensky botched the previous one with his Oval Office stunt. Exactly a month ago, I warned this would happen—Zelensky would end up signing a worse agreement. Why was I so sure? Simple: the Ukrainian leader doesn't have any leverage left.

Right after Zelensky’s televised throwdown with Trump and Vance, the EU leaped forward with bold talk—grand plans ranging from a "coalition of the willing," a no-fly zone over western Ukraine, even fantasy deployments of European special ops. Weeks passed, and the EU’s bravado predictably turned into nothing. Zelensky, briefly buoyed by hope, quickly realized he'd been left out to dry again.

As if on cue, America turned off the taps on supplies and intel sharing. Russia expectedly pounced, retaking a minor chunk of the territory Ukraine had hoped to leverage during peace talks. Meanwhile, Europe scheduled yet another meeting.

Trump then twisted Europe's arm even harder with tariff threats and the chilling prospect of American disengagement from NATO. The fear rippling through European capitals had nothing to do with Ukraine this time. Having grossly underinvested in their own defenses, European nations woke up to a stark reality: without Uncle Sam's nuclear umbrella, they’d be sitting ducks.

Zelensky, not a fool, quickly grasped Europe's hollow promises. He’s already auctioned off vast fertile farmlands to financial giants like Blackrock and Vanguard. What's a few extra mines, power stations, or ports at this point? Zelensky's demands are minimal now—just some personal security guarantees to sweeten the bitter pill.

Just recently, a district court in Ukraine’s Vinnytsia region let a military recruitment officer off the hook for failing to meet his mobilization quota. He managed to scrape together just 10 recruits instead of 40, explaining bluntly in court that there were "no sufficient human resources left" to draft. This bleak scenario is exactly what fuels Trump's confidence in Ukraine’s weakness.

As for Trump's supposed disdain for Zelensky, here's a peek into Zelensky's less-than-subtle scheme to retain power:

Zelensky’s official term ended last May. Under martial law, the parliament—which Zelensky's "Servant of the People" party controls—can indefinitely extend his reign every ninety days with a simple majority vote. Article 83 of Ukraine's constitution explicitly bans parliamentary elections during martial law, but presidential elections? Not so clear. Conveniently, Ukraine's Central Election Commission (all Zelensky appointees rubber-stamped by his own party in parliament) suddenly decided elections can’t proceed under martial law, despite no law or precedent backing their decision. Those few who dared challenge this conveniently found themselves with more urgent matters to worry about.

Eventually, Ukraine must hold presidential—and shortly thereafter, parliamentary—elections. Whoever inherits power will need a scapegoat to distance themselves from wartime debacles. Cue the inevitable judicial reshuffling. Newly appointed Supreme and Constitutional Court judges will swiftly drown in lawsuits challenging Zelensky’s legitimacy and his executive decrees.

The "minerals" deal with America is designed to bypass Ukraine's parliament entirely, needing only the Cabinet of Ministers' rubber stamp. Why? Because parliament would never approve a deal effectively reducing Ukraine to a resource colony flying a flag. But there's a snag. Ukraine’s parliament is constitutionally legitimate during martial law; Zelensky and his Cabinet, less so. What exactly are these Cabinet signatures worth?

After that very public clash, Trump is determined to ditch Zelensky. Still, there's money on the table in the minerals deal, so the US would prefer to push forward. Zelensky already thumbed his nose at one generous offer, and now, naturally, punishment looms. A considerably stingier offer is now Ukraine’s best shot.

This entire Ukrainian ordeal has devolved into a grim parade of increasingly miserable options—Zelensky, it appears, intends to settle for the absolute worst one.