RSSAmplifier

Vaughn Tan · Jul 5, 2025

Optimisation fallacy

0
Sign in to vote or save

This site does not allow itself to be embedded. You can still read it on the original site — the toolbar below keeps your place in the directory.

tl;dr: A futurist friend recently made an expensive, early exit from the Middle East during a flare-up in the Israel-Iran conflict … then felt embarrassed when the situation de-escalated theatrically. That embarrassment stems from misframing the decision as an optimisation problem — which assumes that precise estimation of risks, probabilities, and timings is possible. It wasn’t. The situation…

Read on vaughntan.org

Comments

Nothing yet. Say the first thing.

    Sign in to join the conversation.