2025: Dispersion, "Lottery Tickets," and a Look Back

As we approach the end of 2025, we wanted to send one final note before the holidays to reflect on what has been a fascinating year for systematic trading.

If you look at broad CTA indices, 2025 might seem like a quiet year. But under the surface, it was defined by massive dispersion. This was the central theme of the HedgeNordic CTA Roundtable in Stockholm, which we participated in last month alongside peers from AlphaSimplex, Aspect, Lynx, and others.

The Theory in Practice

For readers of this newsletter, our stance on diversification is no secret. We believe that in a year defined by political shocks and trade policy shifts (”Liberation Day”), the edges aren’t found in the crowded center of the financial world.

During the roundtable, we discussed the concept of “risk clusters.” If you hold the 2-year note and the 5-year note, you don’t really have two bets. You have a cluster.

Real diversification—and the source of our returns this year—came from what we call “orthogonal” markets. These are the “lottery tickets in the tail”—markets like orange juice, California Carbon, or specific metals that move independently of the Fed or the S&P 500.

You can read the full summary of that discussion here.

A Year of Validation

It is one thing to model these concepts; it is another to trade them live. We are proud to report that this “ensemble” approach of robust trend following across a broad universe delivered strong results in 2025.

• Takahē Global Quantitative Fund is on track to finish the year as a top performer in its peer group (~+17% YTD) and was recently named the Winner of the 2025 HFM European Performance Award.

• Takahē Global Markets Fund (launched in May) has delivered positive returns in every month since inception.

We also grew our own “ensemble” internally, expanding the team to five and welcoming Leonie Herma and Friederike von der Recke to help us manage the business and legal frameworks required to onboard even more of these niche markets.

Happy Holidays

Whether you are a long-time reader of our research or an investor in our funds, thank you for being part of our journey in 2025.

We are going to take some time to unplug, recharge, and perhaps find a few new markets to add to the portfolio for 2026. We hope you get the chance to do the same.

Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year,

Moritz & Moritz