Even without 20/20 hindsight, it was obvious that the sudden emergence of Péter Magyar in 2024 had upended Hungary’s political terms of trade.
Just because opinion polls had overestimated the strength of the opposition to Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz movement in 2022 didn’t mean they were about to do it again. A desperate opposition was ready to clear the field for his Tisza Party clean skins while, as a Fidesz defector, Magyar could tap into parts of the Orbánist right that were sick of its corruption and economic mismangement.
The Magyar model – combining orthodox economics, respect for democratic norms, passive rather than active social liberalism, and zero tolerance for corruption – was and is highly replicable. For this reason alone, an election that threatened to bring down Orbánism after a seemingly unstoppable 16-year illiberal, competitive-authoritarian streak was too good to miss. So, in January, 242 News launched a weekly podcast series on this pivotal election – the only one in English – that ran through decision day in April.
Every week, Pepijn Bergsen and I assessed campaign news, parsed the independent voter surveys (and dismissed what Israeli liberals generously refer to as “advocacy polls”), and analysed the prediction and financial markets before introducing specialist guests. With nothing but a video short for initial marketing, our audience expanded from nothing to 12,000 downloads.
This was sufficient proof of concept to replicate the weekly series, starting again on 3 January 2027, to cover France’s spring election - one that could elevate right-wing nativist Marine Le Pen to the presidency. Every weekend from January until May, a discussion of the campaign, polls and personalities will be followed by a conversation with specialists in French history, politics, polling, economics, budgets, defence and demographic strains.
Listen to any of the Hungary episodes below and subscribe now on your preferred podcast app so that you won’t miss any of the France 2027 series.
Ça va être ouf, as the kids are alleged to say.
“Hungary is to the American right what Sweden used to be to the American left”
Kim Lane Scheppele on how MAGA would take an Orbán defeat (4-Jan-26)
“The point is how Orbán can react to a possible defeat”
Stefano Bottoni on Viktor Orbán’s political odyssey (11-Jan-26)
“Péter Magyar is a much more dangerous opponent for the government”
Dániel Róna on why Hungary’s election is somehow still a toss-up (18-Jan-26)
“The central bank take over of MAGA dreams”
Júlia Király on Hungarian lessons for taming the Federal Reserve (25-Jan-26)
“People are waiting for change, so there is a huge expectation”
Gábor Bojár sees the 1989 revolutionary spirit in young Hungarians (1-Feb-26)
“Trump hasn’t been the boon to Orbán that many expected”
Zselyke Csaky on the foreign-policy impact of Hungary’s election (8-Feb-26)
“A kind of false flag operation may be committed”
Géza Jeszenszky on how far Orbán could go in demonising Ukraine (15-Feb-26)
Fidesz are “much less confident than I’ve ever seen them in the last 20 years”
András Pethő on how media freedom dies - not just in darkness (22-Feb-26)
“Just set up a Zoom call without Viktor on it and get this done”
Pepijn Bergsen, Bill Farren-Price, Tim G. Jones and Simon Taylor (1-Mar-26)
“Hungary is trailing behind Russia by 10 years”
Márton Schlanger on lies, damned lies and Hungary’s opinion polls (8-Mar-26)
“Hungary would probably be hit harder than many others”
Pepijn Bergsen and Tim G. Jones assess how the energy-price shock will affect the last days of the campaign (15-Mar-26)
“They have five Ferraris so it’s a different level”
Dávid Jancsics on corruption and state capture in Orbán’s Hungary (22-Mar-26)
“This is a special opportunity to get rid of Orbán”
László Andor on why Tisza’s hoped-for victory will be bittersweet (29-Mar-26)
“Those people don’t care about Vance”
Miklós Sükösd on Veep Budapest and the Magyar enigma (3-Apr-26)
The final days with Ábel Bede and Gabriela Greilinger (10-Apr-26)
Péter Magyar “behaves like a tank”
Hungary’s morning after, with Gábor Scheiring (17-Apr-26)
Twenty-Four Two, hosted by Tim G. Jones and Pepijn Bergsen, is a podcast from 242.news - a Substack newsletter covering the destructive recreation of Europe since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24/2/2022.
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