The 4.3% GDP growth reported for Q3 2025 suggests a booming economy, but a closer look at inflation undercounting, mandatory costs, and accounting flukes suggests that the real growth is likely lower, perhaps closer to 1.5% or 2%. 1. The Inflation Data Black Hole The most significant reason to doubt the 4.3% figure is the […]
Claim Where three distinct civilizational or ideological orders press upon the same arena, for example, through a literal land border, and none can impose decisive supremacy quickly, chronic instability is created that can become self-perpetuating. Two-sided frontiers often settle into conquest or a stable line, but three-sided frontiers do not. This is a structural mechanism […]
Economists have different theories to explain how wealth changes people’s marginal propensity to consume (MPC). In other words, how do people’s current wealth level affect the proportion of additional income that will be consumed vs saved? The theories all seem logical, but mutual contradiction means that there can only be one truth. How well do […]
Wyman (1998, p.216-20) history professor and founder of the Institute of Holocaust Studies in Washington, has been one of the primary figures advocating for bombing the Auschwitz gas-chamber and rairoads, which would have “saved several hundred thousand [Jews], … without compromising the war effort” in “Why Auschwitz Was Never Bombed” published in Commentary – a […]
Adam Smith describes in his magnum opus “The Wealth of Nations”, several of his theories and attempts at measuring value. These ideas, such as the 3-factor cost model and the labour theory of value, laid the groundwork for future titans of economics, such as Ricardo, Marx, Menger, and other marginal revolutionaries, who have built upon […]
Disclaimer: This article is now outdated. It was written in early 2014. I am no longer involved in crypto, , and hold no opinion on current trends. You may read the outdated article below: Introduction: For those of you who don’t know me, I am Tuxedage — organizer of the dogecoin lite […]
So I recently won an additional game of the AI Box Experiment against DEA7H. This experiment was conducted over Skype, which is in contrast to my previous games over IRC. Yes, I know I swore never to play this game ever again — forgive me. This is the last time, for real. This puts me […]
The Archive I have personally witnessed at least 14 AI box experiments as of the time of writing this post. Some of them are games where the Gatekeeper and AI chose to release logs. This is an archive of the logs that have been released, all in one place — for ease of referencing. Unless […]
AI Box Experiment Update #3 This post is an update to my previous AI box experiment where I won against SoundLogic. If you have not read that yet, please do so. After that game, I was immediately flooded with a horde of invitations challenging me to play — more games than […]
Summary So I just came out of two AI Box experiments. The first was agaist Fjoelsvider, with me playing as Gatekeeper, and the second was against SoundLogic, with me as an AI. Both are members of the LessWrong IRC. The second game included a $40 monetary incentive (also $20 to play), which I won […]