Reprise: Nuclear Power Phase-out Results in Devastating Health and Environmental Costs

We recently reported on the German government admission that shutting down their nuclear power plants was a mistake. Prior to closures, in 2011, Germany had a nuclear fleet of 17 reactors, generating over 33% of the country’s electricity.

Since then, nuclear power has been replaced by coal, imported natural gas, and wood pellets, leading to an increase in “greenhouse gas” emissions, air pollution, and an increased reliance on foreign energy sources.

Here we examine the cost in human lives, money, and carbon caused by Germany’s “Atomausstieg”, or nuclear phase-out. From 2011 to 2023, Germany shut down 17 reactors, and thus removed 800 TWh of safe and clean low-carbon electricity — equivalent to about two years of national demand.

By phasing out nuclear in the name of “safety”, Germany has exposed its population to far greater health risks from coal and wood pellet burning, and an increase in electricity prices of almost 25 %.

The phase out of nuclear power and increased CO₂ emissions has also distorted the price of carbon credits on the European Carbon Trading System. Germany must now purchase approximately €57 billion in additional carbon credits due to the increased emissions.

We further note that Germany is exceptionally dependent on Russian natural gas imports. This revenue has enrichened Putin and Russia, and has helped fund the war in Ukraine, as explained below:

Above: checkmate Germany.

Adapted from: The Germany Nuclear Phase-Out

Key points:

1. Germany’s nuclear replacement energy: almost entirely fossil fuels (98% coal, 2% gas).

2. Nearly 20,000 deaths attributable to air pollution from Germany’s nuclear exit. This is five times higher than even the most pessimistic estimates of the death toll from Chernobyl. By phasing out nuclear in the name of safety, Germany inadvertently exposed its population to far greater risks from coal.

3. Health impact: increased coal burning estimates are 19,200 premature deaths and 177,000 serious illnesses from air pollution, based on WHO health impact factors. This equates to approximately 12 billion Euro in additional health costs for Germany.

4. Toxic pollutants: increased coal burning adds tonnes of mercury, cadmium, and lead to the wider environment, in addition to other toxic metals.

5. CO₂ emissions goal defeated: this substitution caused an additional 730 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions — more than all of Germany’s 2024 annual greenhouse gas emissions.

6. Carbon trading: Germany’s increased CO₂ emissions has disrupted the EU’s main emissions trading system (EU ETS) and market, which has trickled down and increased electricity costs for the average German. The additional carbon allowances that must now be purchased represent resources diverted away from investment in infrastructure, social benefits, or industrial innovation. European carbon prices have risen notably in late 2025, reaching €83.79 per tonne on December 15, up 3% monthly and 30% year-over-year. The price of carbon permits in the EU’s main emissions trading system (EU ETS) recently hit multi-month highs.

7. Germany’s estimated additional carbon ETS costs are an estimated at a whopping €57 billion.

Above: increased emissions from lost nuclear power production, Germany 2011-2023. The increase in CO₂ emissions shown above does not include sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, or heavy metals.

Above: HEALTH IMPACTS FROM ADDITIONAL COAL AND GAS POWER, 2011–2023.

Above: It is estimated that the nuclear exit has already caused five times more deaths than Chernobyl by driving continued coal combustion, and this number stands to rise even further in the coming years. The justification for the nuclear phase-out rested heavily on concerns about safety and health risks. Nuclear’s risks are minimal compared to those of coal.

Above: fear, politics and money has left Germany in decline as a result of the nuclear phase-out or Atomausstieg.

Above: Angela, you were my best operative, fluent in Russian too!