Yet another apocalyptic threat, followed by another self-congratulatory climbdown. The pattern is becoming tiresome by now: Unable to escalate his way out of the self-inflicted debacle, Trump tries to bluff his way out. Except, Tehran is not falling for it. Rather, it is confidently raising the stakes, calculating that Trump will only dedicate himself fully to a diplomatic solution once he has internalized that he does not have a military option.
It’s a risky strategy - with potential attacks in Egypt and cyber attacks in the US - but one that the new and far less restrained military leadership believes is more likely to achieve security than giving in to Trump.
So the next few days will undoubtedly be eventful and leave us with much to discuss. I am scheduling our next Q&A session for Friday, August 7, at 2.00 pm ET.
As you know, all my writing is free; I do not paywall the analysis. But for the busy members of the community who want to go beyond the headlines, I host exclusive Zoom briefings and Q&As for paid subscribers.
The conversation will go in whatever direction you choose to take it. And if you want, you can message me ahead of time and raise issues you’d like to see discussed.
So join me this coming Friday, August 7, at 2:00 p.m. ET for a 45-minute Q&A and discussion via Zoom.
Register for the Zoom here:
(I will post the video on my Substack afterward, available only to paid subscribers).
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