Kalshi and the dunk machine

As voters headed to the polls in Wisconsin&rsquo;s Democratic gubernatorial primary on August 11, Kalshi, the prediction market, posted the following tweet : Rival firm Polymarket gave her similar odds . Later that day, Hong narrowly lost to her opponent David Crowley . This is funny. But the fact that the prediction was wrong is not the point: even perfectly calibrated 95% predictions will be…