Predicting our own demise

Prediction markets are having a moment. Polymarket daily volumes are around $30 million. Kalshi is around the same, and recently raised a funding round at a valuation of $2 billion. On the regulatory front, the SEC and CFTC seem to have given up trying to limit Kalshi's transformation into a sport-betting powerhouse, making a mockery of state-level regulations on sports gambling. Indeed,…