"The 'AGI-is-near' community keeps committing the same logical fallacy over and over. Every time there’s an advance, I see the same error."

" A stra, a new model that OpenAI is testing internally, is amazing. No denying that: "But at the same time, a whole raft of people, some fairly prominent, are running around making a deeply flawed argument about the implications. ... "[One] tweet went so far as to claim that “ the species just crossed a one-way threshold ”; Elon Musk took it as evidence that we had reached The Singularity . "Each…