Who wins the 2026 World Cup? Not Spain, apparently.

The group stage is over, the Round of 32 is set — and the model has changed its mind. ⚽️ When I ran the numbers before kickoff the model had a bold, market-contrarian opinion: 🇪🇸 Spain to win it at 35.3%, 🇦🇷 Argentina second at 23.0% and both dramatically underpriced by the bookies — Spain&rsquo;s +19.3pp edge over Polymarket was the strongest disagreement between maths and money I&rsquo;d…