Can Space Launch Cost Asymmetries Reshape Geopolitical Power?

In 2025, Alessio Terzi and Francesco Nicoli estimate an average launch cost of $3,225 per kilogram for the United States and $9,897 per kilogram for Europe, measured in 2024 U.S. dollars and standardized to low Earth orbit. India stands at $13,302 per kilogram, Russia at $6,682, China at $5,809, and Japan at $5,287. Those space launch cost asymmetries form the central empirical result of…