When urban flood models disagree: hydrological equifinality as actuarial model risk

My short article, when urban flood models disagree: hydrological equifinality as actuarial model risk, was recently published in the European Actuarial Journal. In a nutshell, I tried to address the question how much does a flood that has not happened yet cost? For insurers, answering that question involves a surprisingly long chain: rainfall has to become runoff, runoff has to become water in…