From Rating Factors to Crash Mechanisms: A Multiscale Causal DAG Framework Linking Motor Insurance and Road Safety

Motor insurance models and road-safety studies address the same underlying risk, but at very different scales. Insurance models typically predict annual claim counts from a small set of rating variables, such as age, mileage, vehicle characteristics, or past claims. Road-safety research, by contrast, seeks to understand mechanisms operating much closer to the crash itself, including speed,…