The Pessimism of AI Optimism (or, Reflections on The Bitter Lesson)

The Bitter Lesson proposes that general-purpose solutions based on the pace of technological progress and scale ineveitably outperform previously state-of-the-art but handcrafted solutions. In many cases, the Bitter Lesson might be considered optimistic - technological progress drives a positive feedback loop of improvement. What is left unsaid in that optimism is the pessimistic implication…