Could a Top Crypto Exchange Collapse? CEX Insolvency Odds…

KEY TAKEAWAYS Polymarket bettors currently price the probability of a major centralized exchange becoming insolvent in 2026 at approximately 5% across five tracked platforms. Three mid-tier exchanges, AscendEX, BitMEX, and BitMart, announced closures or wind-downs between July 1 and July 26, 2026, affecting hundreds of millions in user assets. BitMart's reported on-chain reserves showed just $2…