# prediction market (blogs) — RSS Amplifier Recent posts from the 42 feeds in the RSS Amplifier directory that cover prediction market. Page: Feed: --- ## [Does 0xinsider Have a Public Polymarket Trading Account?](https://0xinsider.com/learn/does-0xinsider-have-a-public-polymarket-account) _2026-08-23 · 0xinsider — Prediction Market Analytics_ Yes. The account is public. Open the Polymarket profile, inspect the work directly, and use 0xinsider to read the surrounding market and trader context. ## [The Great Capital Collision: Bridgewater’s Greg Jensen on AI, High Rates and the End of the One-Market World](https://llmquant.substack.com/p/the-great-capital-collision-bridgewaters) _2026-08-22 · LLMQuant · LLMQuant Newsletter_ AI could drive most of the next phase of US growth while creating relatively few jobs. Meanwhile, governments, technology companies and nations are competing for the same scarce capital. ## [Warren Buffett Watch: It's Buffett, not Abel, who appears to be calling the shots on stocks](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/22/warren-buffett-not-greg-abel-appears-to-still-be-calling-the-shots-on-stocks.html) _2026-08-22 · Investing_ New Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel appears to be letting Warren Buffett and portfolio manager Ted Weschler make all the decisions on the company's equities. ## [NOAA's National Blend of Models: What It Is and Why We Switched to It](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-22-noaas-national-blend-of-models-what-it-is-and-why-we-switched-to-it) _2026-08-22 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A practical breakdown of NOAA's National Blend of Models — what it is, how it works, and why we stopped hand-rolling a worse version of it. ## [Ray Dalio says Bessent move is sign that a debt crisis is getting closer; recommends gold and bitcoin](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/ray-dalio-bessent-debt-crisis-bitcoin-gold.html) _2026-08-21 · Investing_ Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the the debt buyback announcement this week fits into a larger pattern that could signal a forthcoming debt crisis. ## [Erik Voorhees Discusses Plan to Hand Venice’s VVV Token to Loyal Users](https://unchainedcrypto.com/erik-voorhees-discusses-plan-to-hand-venices-vvv-token-to-loyal-users/) _2026-08-21 · Unchained · Unchained_ The Venice founder said the rewards program, which he called unannounced and undeployed, is part of a wider push to make the token deflationary and eventually "burn all the tokens in existence." The post Erik Voorhees Discusses Plan to Hand Venice’s VVV Token to Loyal Users appeared first on Unchained . ## [Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/kalshi-traders-say-bitcoin-rally-wont-go-much-higher-by-end-of-2026.html) _2026-08-21 · Investing_ Speculators on the prediction market platform think it's most likely that the cryptocurrency will end 2026 close to where it's now trading. ## [Energy sector is in focus because of Iran, AI and California. Here are hedge funds' top plays](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/energy-sector-is-in-focus-because-of-iran-ai-and-california-here-are-hedge-funds-top-plays.html) _2026-08-21 · Investing_ The favorite energy stocks of hedge funds - including one with a projected 65% upside ## [Probability Calibration for Binary Markets: Why 98% Confidence Should Scare You](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-21-probability-calibration-for-binary-markets-why-98-confidence-should-scare-you) _2026-08-21 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ If your model says 95% and wins 60% of the time, it's not right often enough to matter — it's just confidently wrong. Here's how to measure that gap and fix it. ## [The CFTC Will Give Crypto Clarity If Congress Won’t](https://luckytrader.substack.com/p/the-cftc-will-give-crypto-clarity) _2026-08-21 · TylerD · Morning Minute_ Meanwhile crypto majors and alts continue to soar, with BTC nearing $80k and alts like Pump and ZEC putting up big candles ## [Every Channel. One Login. (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/57mDUIWJZSQL) _2026-08-21 · **Sponsored**_ 17,000+ live channels, movies and sports on any device. Free trial, no IP lock. ## [The Agent Economy Has a Management Problem](https://llmquant.substack.com/p/the-agent-economy-has-a-management) _2026-08-21 · LLMQuant · LLMQuant Newsletter_ Google DeepMind’s new framework reveals why smarter models alone cannot build a safe agentic economy, and why delegation may become AI’s next critical infrastructure layer ## [The price of predictions](https://earningsandmore.substack.com/p/the-price-of-predictions) _2026-08-21 · Earnings+More · Earnings+More_ Better Collective’s Q2 earnings and company signals ## [CME’s Duffy Clashes With Kalshi and the CFTC Chair Over Prediction Market Manipulation](https://unchainedcrypto.com/cmes-duffy-clashes-with-kalshi-and-the-cftc-chair-over-prediction-market-manipulation/) _2026-08-21 · Unchained · Unchained_ A CFTC advisory meeting broke into open insults as CME's Terrence Duffy accused prediction markets of manipulation risk and Kalshi's Luana Lopes Lara turned the question back on him. The post CME’s Duffy Clashes With Kalshi and the CFTC Chair Over Prediction Market Manipulation appeared first on Unchained . ## [Bitcoin Tops $75,000 for First Time in Three Months as Treasury Buyback Plan Fuels Short Squeeze](https://unchainedcrypto.com/bitcoin-tops-75000-for-first-time-in-three-months-as-treasury-buyback-plan-fuels-short-squeeze/) _2026-08-21 · Unchained · Unchained_ Bitcoin is on pace for its best week since March 2024 amid Treasury buyback catalyst. The post Bitcoin Tops $75,000 for First Time in Three Months as Treasury Buyback Plan Fuels Short Squeeze appeared first on Unchained . ## [Two Binance Employees Detained in the UAE Amid Police Inquiries Into Possible Financial Crimes](https://unchainedcrypto.com/two-binance-employees-detained-in-the-uae-amid-police-inquiries-into-possible-financial-crimes/) _2026-08-21 · Unchained · Unchained_ The New York Times reported that two Binance staffers were stopped at Emirati airports, in the country the exchange has spent years turning into its regulatory home. The post Two Binance Employees Detained in the UAE Amid Police Inquiries Into Possible Financial Crimes appeared first on Unchained . ## [CFTC Chair Selig Directs Staff to Draft Crypto Market Structure Rules if the Clarity Act Fails](https://unchainedcrypto.com/cftc-chair-selig-directs-staff-to-draft-crypto-market-structure-rules-if-the-clarity-act-fails/) _2026-08-21 · Unchained · Unchained_ Michael Selig told the CFTC's new innovation committee that the agency will write its own crypto market rules if the Senate cannot move the Clarity Act. The post CFTC Chair Selig Directs Staff to Draft Crypto Market Structure Rules if the Clarity Act Fails appeared first on Unchained . ## [The house of Bally’s](https://earningsandmore.substack.com/p/the-house-of-ballys) _2026-08-21 · Earnings+More · Earnings+More_ Bally’s may solve its immediate liquidity problem, but its collection of interlocking commitments leaves little room for error ## [CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee meeting addresses emerging prediction market risks](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/cftcs-committee-meeting-addresses-prediction-market-risks.html) _2026-08-21 · Investing_ The CFTC's first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting discussed risks of mention markets, with members advocating for tighter consumer protection. ## [Sweepstakes Casinos Aren’t Out Of The Woods Yet After Florida AG Lawsuit](https://closingline.substack.com/p/sweepstakes-casinos-arent-out-of-woods-florida-ag) _2026-08-20 · Dustin Gouker · The Closing Line_ Gambling news roundup: More on NFL + Fanatics; House Speaker claims prediction markets on elections ’swayed’ by foreign interests. ## [Musk’s X Explores Paying Creators in Stablecoins as It Overhauls Its Rewards Program](https://unchainedcrypto.com/musks-x-explores-paying-creators-in-stablecoins-as-it-overhauls-its-rewards-program/) _2026-08-20 · Unchained · Unchained_ The talks are early and unconfirmed, but they surface in the same month X rebuilt its creator payouts around impressions, biweekly transfers and a $30 minimum. The post Musk’s X Explores Paying Creators in Stablecoins as It Overhauls Its Rewards Program appeared first on Unchained . ## [CLI-first decentralized GPU compute (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/rZI6gQrOJmXZ) _2026-08-20 · **Sponsored**_ Pay workers or run your GPU for FFmpeg transcode and AI inference. ## [Call-buying bonanza around Trump's Hyperliquid comments includes some eyebrow-raising trades](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/call-buying-bonanza-around-trumps-hyperliquid-comments-includes-eyebrow-raising-trades.html) _2026-08-20 · Investing_ President Donald Trump hinted that regulation may be in the works for Hyperliquid. Interesting trading activity followed. ## [A Cracked Quant’s Guide to Trading Halts](https://www.alphanume-research.com/p/a-cracked-quants-guide-to-trading) _2026-08-20 · Alphanume Research · Alphanume Research_ Turning literal “exit liquidity” into a low-hanging fruit edge. ## [Visualizing Trade Timestamps Against DST Transitions: The Chart That Revealed the Bug](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-20-visualizing-trade-timestamps-against-dst-transitions-the-chart-that-revealed-the-bug) _2026-08-20 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ When logs showed nothing useful, a single matplotlib chart made the pattern obvious: every losing trade fell inside the DST window. ## [🇺🇸 Hyperliquid Is Coming to the U.S.](https://luckytrader.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-is-coming-to-the-us) _2026-08-20 · TylerD · Morning Minute_ At least, if Trump and the CFTC have their way. And the market really, really liked the news. ## [CFTC Closes FTX Cases With Trading Bans for Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang and No Financial Penalties](https://unchainedcrypto.com/cftc-closes-ftx-cases-with-trading-bans-for-caroline-ellison-and-gary-wang-and-no-financial-penalties/) _2026-08-20 · Unchained · Unchained_ The agency declined to seek restitution, disgorgement or civil penalties from the two cooperating FTX executives, pointing to their assistance and the $11.020 billion criminal forfeiture order. The post CFTC Closes FTX Cases With Trading Bans for Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang and No Financial Penalties appeared first on Unchained . ## [HYPE Surges After Trump Says the CFTC Is Working to Bring Hyperliquid Onshore](https://unchainedcrypto.com/hype-surges-after-trump-says-the-cftc-is-working-to-bring-hyperliquid-onshore/) _2026-08-20 · Unchained · Unchained_ A single line from Trump about bringing the offshore perpetuals venue into U.S. regulation sent HYPE up 17% and lifted every Hyperliquid-linked product on the market. The post HYPE Surges After Trump Says the CFTC Is Working to Bring Hyperliquid Onshore appeared first on Unchained . ## [Trump Presses Congress to Pass a ‘Fair Version’ of the Clarity Act at White House Crypto Meeting](https://unchainedcrypto.com/trump-presses-congress-to-pass-a-fair-version-of-the-clarity-act-at-white-house-crypto-meeting/) _2026-08-20 · Unchained · Unchained_ Flanked by the CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood and Nasdaq, Trump urged Congress to finish market structure legislation that still lacks the Democratic votes to pass. The post Trump Presses Congress to Pass a ‘Fair Version’ of the Clarity Act at White House Crypto Meeting appeared first on Unchained . ## [Bitcoin Blows Past $70,000 as Nearly $3 Billion in Shorts Are Liquidated](https://unchainedcrypto.com/bitcoin-blows-past-70000-as-nearly-3-billion-in-shorts-are-liquidated/) _2026-08-20 · Unchained · Unchained_ Bitcoin's first push above $70,000 in two months has erased nearly $3 billion in short positions, powered by a Treasury buyback expansion. The post Bitcoin Blows Past $70,000 as Nearly $3 Billion in Shorts Are Liquidated appeared first on Unchained . ## [Kalshi Has No Public Leaderboard. Here Is What the Trade Flow Shows.](https://0xinsider.com/research/kalshi-top-traders-leaderboard) _2026-08-20 · 0xinsider — Prediction Market Analytics_ Searches for Kalshi top traders hit a structural wall: Kalshi publishes the trade, not the trader. This piece maps what the public flow can show and where the identity boundary sits. ## [Polymarket Leaderboard P&L, Recomputed](https://0xinsider.com/research/polymarket-leaderboard-pnl-recomputed) _2026-08-20 · 0xinsider — Prediction Market Analytics_ A Polymarket trader P&L figure depends on who computed it and on which accounting basis they used. Two tools can show the same wallet very different numbers without either being broken. Here is why, and how our recomputation works. ## [Privacy-first AI-native browser (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/jJWgNxfxezjC) _2026-08-19 · **Sponsored**_ No telemetry or ads — built on Ungoogled Chromium with a built-in AI sidebar and CLI. ## [What Four Hours Costs: Late Whale Alerts vs Price Impact](https://0xinsider.com/research/cost-of-late-whale-alerts) _2026-08-20 · 0xinsider — Prediction Market Analytics_ Alert products sell speed but none publishes what a delay actually costs. This piece lays out the mechanics of price impact after a large trade, what an honest measurement would need, and where the live feed sits. ## [How Insider Radar Flags Suspicious Trading](https://0xinsider.com/research/how-insider-radar-flags-suspicious-trading) _2026-08-20 · 0xinsider — Prediction Market Analytics_ Insider Radar is a multi-signal suspicion model over stored Polymarket trades. This is the methodology: what the signals are, why a flag is a statistical anomaly and never an accusation, and how to review one. ## [Smart Money vs Whale Size: Which Wallets Actually Move Polymarket Prices](https://0xinsider.com/research/smart-money-vs-whale-size) _2026-08-20 · 0xinsider — Prediction Market Analytics_ A large trade and a smart-money signal are not the same event. This piece separates raw size from grade-weighted flow, shows where each one misleads, and stays honest about what neither has proven. ## [Trump’s Hack-Back Memo Isn’t a License for Cyber Vigilantes, Crypto Lawyers Say](https://unchainedcrypto.com/trumps-hack-back-memo-isnt-a-license-for-cyber-vigilantes-crypto-lawyers-say/) _2026-08-19 · Unchained · Unchained_ On DEX in the City, a former government lawyer and a crypto podcaster argued a barely-noticed White House memo deputizing private firms to fight foreign hackers is tightly supervised, and may be exactly what crypto needs. The post Trump’s Hack-Back Memo Isn’t a License for Cyber Vigilantes, Crypto Lawyers Say appeared first on Unchained . ## [Compliance In Gambling Is (And Should Be) More Than Vibes](https://closingline.substack.com/p/compliance-in-gambling-more-than-vibes) _2026-08-19 · Dustin Gouker · The Closing Line_ Gambling news roundup: Florida AG goes after sweepstakes sites; Kalshi builds out more institutional infrastructure ## [Carvana shares are under pressure this week as Mark Walter probe fuels investor jitters](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/carvana-shares-on-pace-for-10percent-weekly-loss-as-mark-walter-probe-fuels-investor-jitters.html) _2026-08-19 · Investing_ The scrutiny raised questions about what could happen to Walter's Carvana position if fallout from the investigation pressures him to raise cash. ## [Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Institutional Block Trading in Kalshi Event Contracts](https://unchainedcrypto.com/cantor-fitzgerald-opens-institutional-block-trading-in-kalshi-event-contracts/) _2026-08-19 · Unchained · Unchained_ The investment bank will act as an introducing broker for privately negotiated prediction-market trades, with Susquehanna Predictions supplying the pricing and liquidity. The post Cantor Fitzgerald Opens Institutional Block Trading in Kalshi Event Contracts appeared first on Unchained . ## [TikTok Explores Peer-to-Peer Payments in Direct Messages, Pushing Deeper Into Fintech](https://unchainedcrypto.com/tiktok-explores-peer-to-peer-payments-in-direct-messages-pushing-deeper-into-fintech/) _2026-08-19 · Unchained · Unchained_ Code in the current US iPhone app points to transfers routed through TikTok Pay, though a spokesperson reportedly said the feature is not in testing anywhere. The post TikTok Explores Peer-to-Peer Payments in Direct Messages, Pushing Deeper Into Fintech appeared first on Unchained . ## [Kalshi Files for Perpetual Futures on US Stocks and Copper, Its First on Equities](https://unchainedcrypto.com/kalshi-files-for-perpetual-futures-on-us-stocks-and-copper-its-first-on-equities/) _2026-08-19 · Unchained · Unchained_ The exchange asked the CFTC to approve contracts tracking a 500-stock US index and spot copper, three months after regulators cleared the country's first bitcoin perpetual futures. The post Kalshi Files for Perpetual Futures on US Stocks and Copper, Its First on Equities appeared first on Unchained . ## [Meta's legal troubles has options traders eyeing the 'jade lizard'](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/metas-legal-troubles-has-options-traders-eyeing-the-jade-lizard.html) _2026-08-19 · Investing_ One of the many beauties of options trading is the ability to make money on a rangebound stock. Shares of Meta Platforms are presenting that opportunity right now. ## [How Render Network Has Evolved and What AI Advancements Could Mean for Its Next Phase](https://unchainedcrypto.com/how-render-network-has-evolved-and-what-ai-advancements-could-mean-for-its-next-phase/) _2026-08-19 · Unchained · Unchained_ Render Network at its core pays anyone with an idle GPU to help render anything from Hollywood films to NASA visuals. Trevor Harries-Jones, a director on the Render Network Foundation board, joined Laura to walk through how the GPU marketplace has evolved, how AI may inadvertently lead to its growth ... The post How Render Network Has Evolved and What AI Advancements Could Mean for Its Next Phase… ## [How to Query Kalshi's Metadata API for Correct Settlement Specifications](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-19-how-to-query-kalshis-metadata-api-for-correct-settlement-specifications) _2026-08-19 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A complete working tutorial for querying Kalshi's /events and /markets endpoints to pull correct weather station settlement specs, with copy-paste Python code. ## [Scenius Studio (Episode #63)](https://sceniuscapital.substack.com/p/scenius-studio-episode-63) _2026-08-19 · Scenius · Scenius_ Greg Girasole -- Motus Capital ## [🏛️ SEC Proposes First Formal Crypto Rules for Token Fundraising](https://luckytrader.substack.com/p/sec-proposes-first-formal-crypto) _2026-08-19 · TylerD · Morning Minute_ If the proposed rules are formalized, it could lead to an ICO boom in the U.S. ## [Google DeepMind Found a Better Way for AI to Catch Its Own Mistakes](https://llmquant.substack.com/p/google-deepmind-found-a-better-way) _2026-08-19 · LLMQuant · LLMQuant Newsletter_ Generative verifiers turn reward modeling into next-token prediction, lifting GSM8K Best-of-N accuracy from 73.0% to 93.4% and revealing a powerful new path for scalable AI reasoning ## [Metaplanet to Take Nearly 96% of Super League in a $134.6 Million Bitcoin and Cash Deal](https://unchainedcrypto.com/metaplanet-to-take-nearly-96-of-super-league-in-a-134-6-million-bitcoin-and-cash-deal/) _2026-08-19 · Unchained · Unchained_ Metaplanet is seeding a Nasdaq-listed bitcoin treasury platform called Superplanet with 2,100 BTC from its own balance sheet and a five-year lockup. The post Metaplanet to Take Nearly 96% of Super League in a $134.6 Million Bitcoin and Cash Deal appeared first on Unchained . ## [FASB Proposes Guidance That Would Let Companies Count Qualifying Stablecoins as Cash Equivalents](https://unchainedcrypto.com/fasb-proposes-guidance-that-would-let-companies-count-qualifying-stablecoins-as-cash-equivalents/) _2026-08-19 · Unchained · Unchained_ Stablecoins with one-to-one liquid reserves, disclosed annually, and on-demand redemption could join Treasury bills in the cash equivalents line under FASB's proposal. The post FASB Proposes Guidance That Would Let Companies Count Qualifying Stablecoins as Cash Equivalents appeared first on Unchained . ## [SEC Proposes Regulation Crypto Assets, Its First Major Crypto-Specific Offering Rules, With Two Exemptions and a Safe Harbor](https://unchainedcrypto.com/sec-proposes-regulation-crypto-assets-its-first-major-crypto-specific-offering-rules-with-two-exemptions-and-a-safe-harbor/) _2026-08-19 · Unchained · Unchained_ The SEC's Reg Crypto proposal would exempt smaller token offerings from registration and give issuers a certified path out of securities treatment. The post SEC Proposes Regulation Crypto Assets, Its First Major Crypto-Specific Offering Rules, With Two Exemptions and a Safe Harbor appeared first on Unchained . ## [The $850m bridge with a new toll gate](https://earningsandmore.substack.com/p/the-850m-bridge-with-a-new-toll-gate) _2026-08-19 · Earnings+More · Earnings+More_ IG has priced prediction market uncertainty into Underdog deal, but the Aristotle lawsuit adds a more immediate complication ## [A Tradition Unlike Any Other: Betting On The Little League World Series Offshore](https://closingline.substack.com/p/little-league-world-series-betting-offshore) _2026-08-18 · Dustin Gouker · The Closing Line_ Gambling news roundup: Fanatics + NFL partnership, table tennis betting back on the board in Massachusetts