An Actual AI-Timelines Model

How long until all jobs automated? Capabilities Compute Adoption Overall How likely is an existential catastrophe in the 5 years after they’re at the any-(white-collar)-job-level? AI vs humans Humans + AI vs humans Using this model I’ve just returned from LWCW2025 . One thing that kept coming up was people’s AI timelines. I decided to finally write down an explicit model. About half an afternoon’s…