The dubious lesson of the Carpathia

So right now I'm at LessOnline , the LessWrong conference centered on writing about rationality-related topics, and I encountered a very interesting proposition. There was a session about writing speeches for the LessWrong/rationalist Winter Solstice , a solemn ceremony with musical performances and speeches with a rational, hopeful-but-realistic theme. Towards the end, the speaker gave an example…