# fomc — RSS Amplifier Recent posts from the 6 feeds in the RSS Amplifier directory that cover fomc. Page: Feed: --- ## [Is The Current Dip All Bears Will Get In SPX? August 20th Plan](https://tradecompanion.substack.com/p/is-the-current-dip-all-bears-will) _2026-08-19 · Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion_ As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought. This is despite the fact after every dip, we get the standard “world is ending” calls. We saw this Wednesday July 29th after FOMC and it started this macro leg up. This was a particularly large dip (over 100 points in a little… ## [\[Podcast\] Giver's Gambit: Episode 53](https://lazyvillager1.substack.com/p/podcast-givers-gambit-episode-53) _2026-08-19 · The Giver · The Giving Tree_ Went on The Odyssey, came back to see Bessent front-run my Substack piece that I’ve been working on for a week... not cool. Why we’ve been long debasement assets (metals, BTC) ## [Is Today’s SPX Dip The Start of More Red? August 19 Plan](https://tradecompanion.substack.com/p/is-todays-spx-dip-the-start-of-more) _2026-08-18 · Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion_ As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought. This is despite the fact after every dip, we get the standard “world is ending” calls. We saw this Wednesday July 29th after FOMC and it started this macro leg up. This was a particularly large dip (over 100 points in a little… ## [Record highs, Fed minutes ahead](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/record-highs-fed-minutes-ahead) _2026-08-18 · Vuk Vukovic, PhD · ORCA's predictions_ Quick summary: ## [SPX Finally Cools Off. Will Bulls Buy The Dip? August 18 Plan](https://tradecompanion.substack.com/p/spx-finally-cools-off-will-bulls) _2026-08-17 · Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion_ As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought. This is despite the fact after every dip, we get the standard “world is ending” calls. We saw this Wednesday July 29th after FOMC and it started this macro leg up. This was a particularly large dip (over 100 points in a little… ## [Will The Trend Higher Continue Next Week In SPX? August 15 Plan](https://tradecompanion.substack.com/p/will-the-trend-higher-continue-next-183) _2026-08-16 · Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion_ NOTE: This is a resend of the newsletter for Monday August 17th, originally sent on Friday at 4pm, for those who did not receive. As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought. This is despite the fact after every dip, we get the standard “world is ending” calls. We saw… ## [Breakout For SPX. Can SPX Run, Or Is It A Trap? August 14 Plan](https://tradecompanion.substack.com/p/breakout-for-spx-can-spx-run-or-is) _2026-08-13 · Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion_ As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought. We saw this Wednesday July 29th after FOMC. This was a particularly large dip (over 100 points in a little over an hour), and as a result it would mean the dip buy would be particularly large. It was and we’ve ripped 450+… ## [Ultra-Low Volatility In SPX. Calm Before The Storm? August 13th Plan](https://tradecompanion.substack.com/p/ultra-low-volatility-in-spx-calm) _2026-08-12 · Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion_ As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought. We saw this last Wednesday after FOMC. This was a particularly large dip (over 100 points in a little over an hour), and as a result it would mean the dip buy would be particularly large. It was and we’ve ripped 400+ points… ## [CPI Tomorrow. Can It Break The Coil For SPX? August 12 Plan](https://tradecompanion.substack.com/p/cpi-tomorrow-can-it-break-the-coil) _2026-08-11 · Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion_ As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought. We saw this last Wednesday after FOMC. This was a particularly large dip (over 100 points in a little over an hour), and as a result it would mean the dip buy would be particularly large. It was and we’ve ripped 400+ points… ## [Another round, survey open](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/another-round-survey-open) _2026-08-11 · ORCA's predictions_ Quick summary: ## [CLI-first decentralized GPU compute (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/jbfoKsIcLBqz) _2026-08-11 · **Sponsored**_ Pay workers or run your GPU for FFmpeg transcode and AI inference. ## [SPX Is Coiling Tighter And Tighter. Another Trend Coming? August 11th Plan](https://tradecompanion.substack.com/p/spx-is-coiling-tighter-and-tighter-844) _2026-08-10 · Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion_ As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought. We saw this Wednesday July 29th after FOMC. This was a particularly large dip (over 100 points in a little over an hour), and as a result it would mean the dip buy would be particularly large. It was and we’ve ripped 400+… ## [Is SPX Coiling For Another Breakout? August 10th Plan](https://tradecompanion.substack.com/p/is-spx-coiling-for-another-breakout-552) _2026-08-09 · Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion_ NOTE: This is a resend of the newsletter for Monday August 10th, originally sent Friday at 4pm, for those who did not receive. As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought. We saw this last Wednesday after FOMC. This was a particularly large dip (over 100 points in a… ## [The Supplement: Arthur Burns tells Los Angeles that his instruments cannot reach this inflation, and names the ones that should stand beside them](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-supplement) _2026-08-09 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ On December 7, 1970, Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur F. Burns told a Pepperdine College audience in Los Angeles that monetary and fiscal policy could not reach a cost-driven inflation, and asked... [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-supplement.mp3) ## [A closer look at the Fed's new monetarism](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/a-closer-look-at-the-feds-new-monetarism) _2026-08-08 · Vuk Vukovic, PhD · ORCA's predictions_ A long summer read. Enjoy. ## [Économie française : le risque de décrochage est-il devenu structurel ?](https://www.fibee.fr/economie-francaise-le-risque-de-decrochage-est-il-devenu-structurel/) _2026-08-07 · Patrick Artus · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ Faible croissance, déficit public persistant, vieillissement démographique et insuffisance des investissements : l’économie française cumule plusieurs fragilités qui interrogent sa capacité à retrouver une croissance durable. Lire la suite : Économie française : le risque de décrochage est-il devenu structurel ? sur Fibee.fr ## [Banque du Japon : statu quo sur les taux, mais un discours de plus en plus ferme](https://www.fibee.fr/banque-du-japon-statu-quo-sur-les-taux-mais-un-discours-de-plus-en-plus-ferme/) _2026-08-05 · Thuy Vân Pham · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ La Banque du Japon a maintenu son taux directeur à 1 % lors de sa réunion de juillet, privilégiant toujours une normalisation progressive de sa politique monétaire. Lire la suite : Banque du Japon : statu quo sur les taux, mais un discours de plus en plus ferme sur Fibee.fr ## [The survey is live!](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/the-survey-is-live) _2026-08-04 · ORCA's predictions_ Quick summary: ## [Return from Absence](https://lazyvillager1.substack.com/p/return-from-absence-d4c) _2026-08-04 · The Giver · The Giving Tree_ Where has The Giver been? Did he finally Make It? ## [Fed : Kevin Warsh joue sa crédibilité en abandonnant la forward guidance](https://www.fibee.fr/fed-kevin-warsh-joue-sa-credibilite-en-abandonnant-la-forward-guidance/) _2026-08-03 · Thomas Giudici · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ Quelques mois après son arrivée à la tête de la Réserve fédérale, Kevin Warsh commence à mesurer les difficultés d’une communication monétaire volontairement moins prévisible. Alors que la Fed a maintenu ses taux entre 3,50 % et 3,75 %, la décision a révélé des divisions croissantes au sein du FOMC et laissé les investisseurs dans l’incertitude sur la trajectoire à venir. Lire la suite : Fed :… ## [The collapse of AI momentum stocks](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/the-collapse-of-ai-momentum-stocks) _2026-08-01 · Vuk Vukovic, PhD · ORCA's predictions_ A hell of a week to finish off a hell of a month. ## [Sync bookmarks across every browser (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/oFfDF3YzjKjX) _2026-08-01 · **Sponsored**_ Two-way sync across Chrome, Firefox and Safari; built-in ad and tracker blocker. ## [Don't Expect a July Fed Hike, but Simmering Frustrations May Become More Apparent](https://accessmacro.substack.com/p/dont-expect-a-july-fed-hike-but-simmering) _2026-07-28 · Tim Mahedy · Access/Macro_ A July hike is unlikely, but battle lines within the Committee are likely to become clearer as members look to backdoor forward guidance through economic assessments. ## [What a week: FOMC, earnings, PCE inflation, jobs](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/what-a-week-fomc-earnings-pce-inflation) _2026-07-28 · Vuk Vukovic, PhD · ORCA's predictions_ Quick summary: ## [Pétrole : le retour des tensions au Moyen-Orient ravive les risques énergétiques et inflationnistes](https://www.fibee.fr/petrole-le-retour-des-tensions-au-moyen-orient-ravive-les-risques-energetiques-et-inflationnistes/) _2026-07-28 · DNCA Finance · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ À peine un mois après l'accord entre les États-Unis et l'Iran, le rétablissement du blocus des ports iraniens et les nouvelles perturbations dans le détroit d'Ormuz replacent le risque énergétique au premier plan. Lire la suite : Pétrole : le retour des tensions au Moyen-Orient ravive les risques énergétiques et inflationnistes sur Fibee.fr ## [Les marchés redécouvrent le risque pétrolier, l’IA doit désormais prouver sa rentabilité](https://www.fibee.fr/les-marches-redecouvrent-le-risque-petrolier-lia-doit-desormais-prouver-sa-rentabilite/) _2026-07-27 · Thomas Giudici · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ Le retour du Brent au-dessus de 100 dollars marque un changement de perception des investisseurs face au conflit au Moyen-Orient. L’extension des tensions au détroit de Bab-el-Mandeb et les perturbations des routes maritimes ravivent le scénario d’un véritable choc énergétique, alimentant la remontée des taux souverains et renforçant les interrogations sur les prochaines décisions de la BCE et de… ## [Uh-oh: Dashboard changed regimes. Now it's Warsh's turn.](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/uh-oh-dashboard-changed-regimes-now) _2026-07-25 · Vuk Vukovic, PhD · ORCA's predictions_ What to expect from FOMC next week ## [Indices équipondérés : un retour en grâce face à la domination des géants de la Tech ?](https://www.fibee.fr/indices-equiponderes-un-retour-en-grace-face-a-la-domination-des-geants-de-la-tech/) _2026-07-24 · John Plassard · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ Après plusieurs années de surperformance des indices traditionnels, largement tirés par les mégacapitalisations technologiques, le débat sur les indices équipondérés revient au premier plan. Lire la suite : Indices équipondérés : un retour en grâce face à la domination des géants de la Tech ? sur Fibee.fr ## [Transition énergétique : le choc pétrolier accélère la quête d’indépendance énergétique en Asie](https://www.fibee.fr/transition-energetique-le-choc-petrolier-accelere-la-quete-dindependance-energetique-en-asie/) _2026-07-22 · Pictet AM · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ La guerre entre les États-Unis et l'Iran agit comme un puissant catalyseur de la transition énergétique en Asie. Très dépendante du pétrole transitant par le détroit d'Ormuz, la région renforce à court terme ses approvisionnements en hydrocarbures, tout en accélérant massivement ses investissements dans les énergies renouvelables, le nucléaire, le stockage par batteries et les véhicules… ## [Pause estivale en vue !](https://www.fibee.fr/pause-estivale-en-vue/) _2026-07-22 · Fibee · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ Pendant les vacances d'été, le rythme des publications sur Fibee sera légèrement réduit. Les sociétés de gestion, les analystes et les acteurs des marchés financiers communiquent naturellement moins durant cette période. Lire la suite : Pause estivale en vue ! sur Fibee.fr ## [Testing the top, earnings take the wheel](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/testing-the-top-earnings-take-the) _2026-07-21 · Vuk Vukovic, PhD · ORCA's predictions_ Quick summary: ## [Actions japonaises : après un fort rebond, le marché marque une pause](https://www.fibee.fr/actions-japonaises-apres-un-fort-rebond-le-marche-marque-une-pause/) _2026-07-21 · Meeschaert · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ Porté depuis 2025 par l'essor de l'intelligence artificielle, le redressement des banques, la faiblesse du yen et l'amélioration de la gouvernance des entreprises, le marché actions japonais a retrouvé une place de choix auprès des investisseurs. Lire la suite : Actions japonaises : après un fort rebond, le marché marque une pause sur Fibee.fr ## [Accept your Doppler invite (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/gZqx0lDKpDcL) _2026-07-21 · **Sponsored**_ Create your Doppler account using the invite code you received. ## [Marchés : malgré le regain des tensions au Moyen-Orient, les investisseurs gardent le cap sur l’IA et l’inflation](https://www.fibee.fr/marches-malgre-le-regain-des-tensions-au-moyen-orient-les-investisseurs-gardent-le-cap-sur-lia-et-linflation/) _2026-07-20 · Thomas Giudici · Analyses et stratégies d'investissement_ La reprise des affrontements entre les États-Unis et l’Iran ravive les tensions géopolitiques, mais les marchés financiers font preuve d’une résilience remarquable. Thomas Giudici (Auris Gestion) souligne que les investisseurs ne redoutent plus un choc pétrolier majeur, estimant que les capacités de production et les alternatives au détroit d’Ormuz limitent les risques sur l’approvisionnement… ## [Credit and vol buying signals are up.](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/credit-and-vol-buying-signals-are) _2026-07-18 · Vuk Vukovic, PhD · ORCA's predictions_ Also watch if gold starts trading with oil again. ## [CPI in the rearview mirror.](https://oraclum.substack.com/p/cpi-in-the-rearview-mirror) _2026-07-14 · Vuk Vukovic, PhD · ORCA's predictions_ Quick summary: ## [Battle of the Warm Weather States](https://accessmacro.substack.com/p/battle-of-the-warm-weather-states) _2026-07-10 · Guy Berger · Access/Macro_ Florida Struggles as California Mounts a Comeback, and there's no hidden unemployment problem. ## [The Slate: The Inference traced a rate cut timed for December, waiting on a supply-side finding the new task forces were to certify by year-end. On July 9 the Federal Reserve named the people who will certify it. Read against what each has spent a decade concluding, the roster is the finding.](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-slate) _2026-07-10 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ Warsh named fifteen independent experts to examine whether the Fed's methods can be improved. Each panel pairs a directional coalition with a credible counterweight: the coalition sets the direction, the counterweight sets the boundary — and the opponents he chose are what make the result credible. [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-slate.mp3) ## [Cool It Hawks. The Inflationary Picture Isn't As Bad As It Seems](https://accessmacro.substack.com/p/cool-it-hawks-the-inflationary-picture) _2026-07-07 · Tim Mahedy · Access/Macro_ There are reasons to be optimistic that the inflation data will play ball later this year, but don't expect a rate cut. ## [Kevin Warsh Hawkish Superstar Has a Stick of Dynamite, and He's Itching to Use It](https://accessmacro.substack.com/p/kevin-warsh-hawkish-superstar-has) _2026-06-19 · Tim Mahedy · Access/Macro_ There are a lot of changes coming to the Fed, just not in interest rates. ## [The Inference: The first meeting under the new chair installed the framework the series predicted — and set the schedule that delivers the cut.](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-inference) _2026-06-18 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting installed the framework the series predicted, on a schedule that points to a December cut — licensed by a productivity payoff the Fed cannot yet measure... [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-inference.mp3) ## [Employment Revisions Turn Positive](https://accessmacro.substack.com/p/employment-revisions-turn-positive) _2026-06-12 · Guy Berger · Access/Macro_ When Good News Becomes Even Better ## [What's Ahead for a Warsh Fed](https://accessmacro.substack.com/p/whats-ahead-for-a-warsh-fed) _2026-06-09 · Tim Mahedy · Access/Macro_ Warsh is right to rethink transparency and Fed communication, but his views on monetary policy and a new Fed Accord need work. This piece is the start of a series on the Warsh Fed. ## [The Game: The program has been announced. The implementation has begun. The chair does not need to win a majority for a standalone cut on the merits of incoming inflation data, because he has changed what the committee will be voting on.](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-game) _2026-05-22 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ Kevin Warsh's confirmation testimony committed the next Federal Reserve chairmanship to a coordinated balance-sheet and rate-cut program. He was sworn in and elected FOMC chair on May 22. The Coordination documented the architecture; The Analogue documented the look-through framework now being applied. The Game reads the opening moves. [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-game.mp3) ## [More hiring. More layoffs. Why you should be doing more of both.](https://accessmacro.substack.com/p/more-hiring-more-layoffs-why-you) _2026-05-14 · Guy Berger · Access/Macro_ America's employers may come to regret their hiring freeze. ## [The Analogue: Why the doctrine that has held since 2008 was built for the cases where oil rose and fell.](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-analogue) _2026-05-02 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ The Federal Reserve's look-through doctrine works when energy shocks mean-revert. The 1973–74 OPEC episode is the case where it didn't, and the modern record shows the framework cannot tell, in real time, which kind of shock it is operating on. The Iran war presents four channels — chokepoint tolls, alliance fracture, reserve diversification, fiscal commitment — on which the price is unlikely to… [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-analogue.mp3) ## [The Dollar: The fifth pillar the doctrine does not name is the institution's most documented operational commitment.](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-dollar) _2026-04-26 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ The fifth pillar the doctrine does not name is the institution's most documented operational commitment. Swap lines, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, FIMA repo facilities, dollar hegemony as enforcement mechanism — all named in the archive, none named in the doctrine. [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-dollar.mp3) ## [The Test: The roadmap maps four pillars and depends on five. The fifth is the one the doctrine does not name.](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-test) _2026-04-25 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ The roadmap maps four pillars and depends on five. The fifth — the one the doctrine does not name — is the operational commitment the Federal Reserve has documented most thoroughly and discussed most reluctantly. Until the fifth is named, the four are aspirational. [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-test.mp3) ## [The Coordination: The axis authorizes four instruments. The balance sheet requires a fifth. The seat that holds the fifth is not in the axis.](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-coordination) _2026-04-24 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ Warsh has committed the next chairmanship under oath to a couple trillion dollars over time in concert with the Treasury Secretary. The balance sheet requires a fifth instrument the four-pillar doctrine does not name. The seat that holds it is not in the axis, and the reform it depends on has been attempted five times and failed. [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-coordination.mp3) ## [The Axis: Three actors, one architecture, and the coordination register that debuted within twenty-four hours of the hearing](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-axis) _2026-04-23 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ The doctrine Kevin Warsh carried into his confirmation hearing is not his alone. It is shared with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and hedge-fund principal Stanley Druckenmiller — across fourteen months of public record, in complementary registers, with a coordination register that debuted operationally within twenty-four hours of the hearing. [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-axis.mp3) ## [The Pillars: A restorationist program, its architecture, and the two readings of how it arrived](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-pillars) _2026-04-21 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on April 21, 2026, for confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair. Across two and a half hours of questioning, he delivered not a set of positions but a program — four operational pillars standing on one normative premise: that Fed authority is conditional on its performance of a narrow mandate. [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-pillars.mp3) ## [The Offset: What the Fed's own transcripts reveal about the fiscal burden Judy Shelton describes](https://causalityineconomics.com/blog/the-offset) _2026-04-20 · konstantine.milevsky@gmail.com (Konstantin Milevskiy) · Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine_ Judy Shelton describes a fiscal burden the Fed has imposed on the Treasury through interest payments on reserves. The transcripts show the Committee built the framework knowing exactly what it would cost. [Listen](https://causalityineconomics.com/static/audio/the-offset.mp3) ## [More Fed Attacks, More Trump Headaches, or Not](https://accessmacro.substack.com/p/more-fed-attacks-more-trump-headaches) _2026-04-15 · Tim Mahedy · Access/Macro_ No, this isn't 4D chess. But the administration may not be in a rush to have Kevin Warsh confirmed as the next Fed Chair.