How Decision Theory Cuts Your AI Agent's API Bill in Half

The companion essay argued that LLM-based &ldquo;agents&rdquo; don&rsquo;t earn the title. No beliefs, no uncertainty quantification, no principled mechanism for deciding whether a tool query justifies its cost. This post supplies the technical scaffolding for that claim &mdash; the mathematics and code behind Credence , the benchmark I built to test it. Think of it as the receipts. For the…