Memo on the grain of truth problem

Frameworks that try to predict reality can fail when they miss crucial details. Frameworks about AI have each failed in turn. For instance: Future Shock , Alvin Toffler, 1970: Higher adaptation ability than anticipated, sometimes manifested as constantly shifting goalposts for what is &ldquo;AGI&rdquo;. The Singularity is Near , Ray Kurzweil, 2005: We aren&rsquo;t seeing a discrete singularity,…