Who won the 2026 World Cup? Spain — exactly as advertised in June.

🇪🇸 Spain won. 🏆 I called it in part 2c , back in June, at 35.3% — the model's boldest, most market-contrarian pick of this whole series. Two and a half weeks later, in part 2d , I was explaining why the model had changed its mind and put 🇦🇷 Argentina in front instead. The trophy is now in Madrid anyway. This is the piece I promised on the day the series started: grading the homework, in full,…