Macro Regime Weekly #3, 2026-08-17: The Hike Bid Broke, and the Long End Refused to Confirm It

As of 2026-08-17. September FOMC hike odds fell from roughly 52% to roughly 30% this week, and July CPI was not what killed them: retail sales at -0.6% MoM was. Core CPI 2.5% YoY (slowest since March 2021), PPI core accelerating to +0.4% MoM, and the long end refusing to confirm any of it, with the 30-year unchanged at 5.25 and 2s10s steepening 4bp. Plus the Brent round trip back to ~$89, the…