China Macro Weekly #4, 2026-08-26: The MLF Test Came Back Negative, and the Fiscal Channel Got Louder

China Macro Weekly for 2026-08-26: the month-end MLF test resolved against easing. The PBoC rolled ¥500bn against ¥600bn maturing, a ¥100bn drain and the first shrunken rollover in four months, with no rate signal. Zero-volume 7-day repos ended 08-21 and resumed at full allotment; the capped overnight facility lapsed, then was re-authorised for month-end. Fiscal widened instead: subsidy caps up,…