The expected value of showing up

"I'm not too sure that many people will compete. So, the expected value of joining is actually pretty high." That's the DM that got me into this. Not "you're good enough." Just: most people won't bother, so the odds are better than they look. I'd already turned the invitation down once. Then Roman did the math at me, and I couldn't argue with it. The invitation was a coding challenge he runs:…