# carlo simulation (blogs) — RSS Amplifier Recent posts from the 3 feeds in the RSS Amplifier directory that cover carlo simulation. Page: Feed: --- ## [What Does Compute Cost?](https://codecube.net/2026/8/what-does-compute-cost/) _2026-08-10 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ A share of a public company has a price. Look up a stock and you'll see it immediately: $42, $180, $900. Tomorrow it'll probably be something else. That number looks like the market, but it's reall... ## [Digging Up the First Version of CodeCube](https://codecube.net/2026/5/recovering-the-old-codecube/) _2026-05-19 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ I added an old CodeCube archive to the site. It's a pile of early CodeCube posts that I was able to pull out of the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine. Not a perfect restoration or anything like th... ## [András Lányi and the Problem of Human-Scale Politics](https://bytepawn.com/lanyi-weil-human-scale-politics.html) _2026-05-01 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ A reading of András Lányi’s essay “Flight from the Camp of the Victors”, focusing on ecological politics, coercion, goodwill, the fragility of decentralization, and whether modern democracies are a more stable equilibrium than Lányi’s human-scale political vision. ## [What I've Been Up To Since 2025](https://codecube.net/2026/4/what-ive-been-up-to-since-2025/) _2026-04-26 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ The last year or so has been a whirlwind. Some of it turned into blog posts, some of it turned into features, some of it turned into separate repos, and some of it is still sitting in branches and ... ## [Single round-trip optimization for Paxos with PaxosLease masters](https://bytepawn.com/paxos-single-round-trip-optimization.html) _2026-04-24 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ In the previous article, I combined Paxos and PaxosLease into a small master-based replicated state machine. The obvious inefficiency was that every command still ran a full two-phase Paxos round. In this article, I add the simplest possible optimization: once a node has become master and completed one full Paxos round, later fresh log slots can skip the prepare phase and go directly to propose. ## [Project Estimation with Dependency Graphs and Monte Carlo Simulation](https://codecube.net/2026/4/project-estimation-workbench/) _2026-04-10 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ I’ve written before about why averages are such a dangerous way to reason about uncertain systems. In Monte Carlo Simulation for Projections and Estimates... ## [Combining Paxos and PaxosLease](https://bytepawn.com/paxos-with-paxoslease.html) _2026-04-05 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ The article walks through the integration of durable Paxos with PaxosLease to arrive at a small master-based replicated state machine: Paxos decides the command log, PaxosLease decides who is allowed to append to it, and clients must discover the current master before submitting writes. ## [Writing a simple Rust async message queue server](https://bytepawn.com/rust-async-mq.html) _2026-03-19 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ A follow-up to the async MQ series: building the same small message queue server in Rust using Tokio, channels, Arc, and Mutex, while learning Rust’s ownership and async model along the way. ## [Multi-Paxos with Disk Persistence](https://bytepawn.com/paxos-with-durability.html) _2026-02-21 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This post extends the simple Multi-Paxos implementation with disk persistence, ensuring acceptor promises and the replicated log survive restarts, and showing how log replay restores state after crashes. ## [Modern Law of Leaky Abstractions](https://codecube.net/2026/1/modern-law-leaky-abstractions/) _2026-01-27 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ Back in 2002, Joel Spolsky wrote The Law of Leaky Abstractions, and it's one of those pieces that's stuck with me ever since I first read it. 23+ years later 💀 and I'm still bringing it up in conv... ## [AI QA that opens fix PRs (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/GfsBgjufyMHH) _2026-01-26 · **Sponsored**_ Run a browser QA from plain-English instructions; get GitHub issues and optional fix PRs. ## [Monte Carlo Simulation for Projections and Estimates](https://codecube.net/2026/1/monte-carlo-cloud-costs/) _2026-01-07 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ I first read The Flaw of Averages by Sam Savage about 15 years ago, back when I worked in the finance industry. I don’t remember every chapter, but I do remember the central idea—and it has shaped ... ## [What Ilya Sutskever, Satya Nadella, and Sam Altman think about AI progress in 2025](https://bytepawn.com/ai-ilya-dwarkesh-satya-altman-2025.html) _2025-12-30 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This article contrasts how Ilya Sutskever, Satya Nadella, and Sam Altman think about AI progress, from research and generalization, through infrastructure and economics, to agents, scaling, and societal impact. ## [What does ChatGPT think about Viktor Orban's 15 years as Hungary's leader?](https://bytepawn.com/orban-viktor-chatgpt.html) _2025-12-14 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ I asked ChatGPT to summarize the top 10 positives and negatives of Orban Viktor's 15 years as Hungary's leader. ## [PaxosLease: Extending and Releasing Leases](https://bytepawn.com/paxoslease-extend-lease.html) _2025-12-14 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This article extends the basic PaxosLease algorithm with practical lease renewal and explicit release semantics, showing a full working Python/Flask implementation and explaining why the protocol remains safe without disks or synchronized clocks. ## [Implementing PaxosLease in Python with HTTP Flask](https://bytepawn.com/paxoslease-python.html) _2025-12-12 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This article introduces PaxosLease, a simplified Paxos variant that uses expiring leases instead of persistent values to enable fast, reliable master election in distributed systems. ## [Multi-Paxos: Building a Simple Replicated Log in Python](https://bytepawn.com/multi-paxos-python.html) _2025-12-06 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This post builds a minimal Multi-Paxos system in Python with Flask HTTP endpoints, showing how repeated Paxos rounds form a fault-tolerant replicated log. ## [Paxos: Lamport's Crown Jewel for Replicated State Machines](https://bytepawn.com/lamport-paxos-simple.html) _2025-12-03 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ A straightforward explanation of Paxos using a simple Python Flask HTTP implementation to show how distributed systems achieve consensus in the presence of faults. ## [Photonic: A 3D Visualizer for the Web](https://codecube.net/2025/11/photonic-visualizer/) _2025-11-16 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ I've been on a bit of a journey lately exploring different ways to visualize and interact with data on my site. After creating the Article Link Map... ## [Marketing Effectiveness and Experimentation Measurement](https://bytepawn.com/marketing-experimentation-measurement.html) _2025-10-11 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ A deep dive into how to structure a marketing measurement and experimentation framework — from universal control groups and campaign holdouts to attribution windows, outlier handling, and statistical rigor. Based on lessons from building a real-world policy for large-scale marketing analytics. ## [Modern Monetary Theory: What’s Missing from the Narrative](https://bytepawn.com/modern-monetary-theory-missing-from-narrative.html) _2025-10-10 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ I explore several points that are rarely explained in Modern Monetary Theory narratives: from taxation in non-tax economies to central bank independence, inflation targets, and the many forms of money that exist beyond government spending. These are areas where the story of MMT could be told more completely. ## [International money transfers (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/dH1mUOz6gYFI) _2025-10-10 · **Sponsored**_ Send money to other countries and manage multi‑currency balances online. ## [The MMT Case for Governments Funding Open Source Software](https://bytepawn.com/modern-monetary-theory-open-source.html) _2025-10-06 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ I argue that widely used digital infrastructure like operating systems, compilers and browsers deserve public investment, just like roads, hospitals, and schools. ## [Cowboy Coders and the Shift to Structure - How Teams Grow](https://codecube.net/2025/9/team-series-cowboy-coders/) _2025-09-09 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ Probably every engineer will have worked with that one person who thrives in the chaos. A system breaks, customers are blocked, and before anyone else has even read the incident report, they’re alr... ## [A brief discussion of the Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance (PBFT) algorithm](https://bytepawn.com/practical-byzantine-fault-tolerance.html) _2025-09-05 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This article explains how Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance (PBFT) builds on Lamport’s theoretical consensus algorithms by introducing leaders, quorums, and cryptographic optimizations to make Byzantine consensus practical, contrasts it with Paxos and crash-fault tolerance, and explores its influence on modern blockchain protocols. ## [The Accidental Path](https://codecube.net/2025/9/accidental-path/) _2025-09-01 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ There’s a book called Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned that my friend Matt Mazur recently tweeted about. He wrote: “It’s a risky strategy because the most likely outcome is you explore and discover... ## [Lamport's Byzantine Consensus algorithm with Signatures](https://bytepawn.com/byzantine-consensus-with-signatures.html) _2025-08-30 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This article, following Lamport's work, extends the original Byzantine Generals algorithm from “oral-messages” to signed messages, showing how digital signatures drastically simplify the problem and reduce message complexity, with an implementation given in Python using Flask HTTP nodes. ## [Moving Fast vs Root Cause Culture - How Teams Grow](https://codecube.net/2025/8/team-series-root-cause/) _2025-08-28 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ “Move fast and break things.” The phrase came out of Facebook’s early days and quickly became a shorthand mantra across the industry. It’s catchy, it feels daring, and it captures a mindset that va... ## [Tiered Thinking in the Age of AI](https://codecube.net/2025/8/tiers-ai/) _2025-08-26 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ Not too long ago, everyone was wondering whether $20 a month for an AI coding tool was worth it. Today, devs are easily blowing past $200 worth of capacity in a single billing cycle, and it’s easy ... ## [Timelines](https://codecube.net/2025/8/timeline-demo/) _2025-08-23 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ I've been writing recently about posts being worthless in the AI era, and explored different ways of navigating content... ## [Applications of Byzantine Consensus](https://bytepawn.com/byzantine-consensus-applications.html) _2025-08-22 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This article examines where Lamport's original oral-messages Byzantine Generals algorithm does and does not apply in practice, contrasting unsuitable cases like distributed databases and rocket launches with a suitable case in redundant flight control systems. ## [Why Agile So Often Falls Short](https://codecube.net/2025/8/agile-fail/) _2025-08-21 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ I first experienced “agile” back in 2004 when I started working at what was then called EA Tiburon. The agile manifesto was still a relatively new concept and I was so excited to be a part of worki... ## [Persona-led AI publishing (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/XXcpYBWUKF2X) _2025-08-20 · **Sponsored**_ Generate drafts, schedule subdomain publishing, and keep human review where needed. ## [Chloroplast – A .NET Static Site Generator for Docs](https://codecube.net/2025/8/chloroplast/) _2025-08-17 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ “When I ask myself ‘what would have the most impact today?’ I sit down and write documentation.” — Miguel de Icaza Documentation has been a big part of my career; working on Microsoft Learn, as the... ## [A more general implementation of Lamport's Byzantine Consensus algorithm in Python](https://bytepawn.com/lamport-byzantine-consensus.html) _2025-08-11 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This follow-up factors Lamport’s Byzantine Generals algorithm into a generalized class that's independent of I/O and payloads. Any node can initiate a round (be "king"), values can be arbitrary strings, and multiple rounds can run concurrently. ## [How Much Do You Need To Plan - How Teams Grow](https://codecube.net/2025/8/team-series-process/) _2025-08-11 · Joel Martinez · Joel Martinez_ When you look at how teams ship software, two extremes pop into view.... ## [Lamport's Byzantine Generals algorithm in Python](https://bytepawn.com/lamport-byzantine-generals.html) _2025-07-29 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ I discuss Lamport's Byzantine Generals problem and why it requires a total of N≥3M+1 nodes with M malicious nodes, and then implement the solution using Python with HTTP Flask servers. ## [Lamport's logical clocks and the Ricart–Agrawala Distributed Mutual Exclusion algorithm in Python](https://bytepawn.com/lamport-logical-clocks-distributed-mutual-exclusion.html) _2025-07-12 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This post shows how to implement the Ricart–Agrawala Distributed Mutual Exclusion algorithm with Lamport's logical clocks using HTTP Flask servers. ## [Exploring Lamport's Bakery algorithm in Python](https://bytepawn.com/lamport-bakery-python.html) _2025-07-10 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This post shows how to implement Lamport’s Bakery algorithm with Python HTTP Flask servers. The Python code is short and readable, helping newcomers grasp the algorithm’s logic without the syntactic overhead of C++. The asynchronous HTTP flow also generates plenty of overlap between workers, so the need for mutual exclusion is obvious. Exposing the variables through REST endpoints enables… ## [Exploring Lamport's Bakery algorithm in C++20](https://bytepawn.com/lamport-bakery-cpp.html) _2025-07-05 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ I explore Lamport’s Bakery algorithm and show how a naive C++20 implementation breaks on weak memory models, how to fix it with std::atomic , and how to implement bounded tickets. ## [Karpathy: AI is changing Software Engineering](https://bytepawn.com/ai-is-changing-software-engineering.html) _2025-07-02 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ Andrej Karpathy says we’re marching from hand-written “Software 1.0” to NN-driven “2.0” and, finally, LLM-powered “3.0.” In my view, neural nets haven’t eaten deterministic code—kernels, browsers, games, and most business logic still run old-school. What has changed is the supply chain: LLM co-pilots (“Software 1.5”) already touch nearly every commit, nudging us towards language and architectures… ## [Writing a simple async message queue server in C++, Python and JavaScript — Summary](https://bytepawn.com/writing-a-simple-async-message-queue-cpp-python-javascript-summary.html) _2025-06-20 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ I summarize thoughts and lessons learned of implementing the same async message queue server in C++, Python and JavaScript over the past 2 years. ## [Writing a simple C++20 async message queue server - Part III](https://bytepawn.com/writing-a-simple-cpp-async-message-queue-server-part-iii.html) _2025-06-19 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ I write the final version of the async message queue server in modern C++20, wire compatible with the Python and Javascript versions. ## [White noise into random walks](https://bytepawn.com/white-noise-into-random-walks.html) _2025-05-03 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ A visual and analytical walk from pure white noise to a true random walk. ## [Random Walks and the Dickey-Fuller Test - Part II](https://bytepawn.com/random-walks-the-dickey-fuller-test-part-ii.html) _2025-04-25 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ The article examines how simple autoregressive stochastic processes behave with the Dickey-Fuller test. ## [Random Walks and the Dickey-Fuller Test - Part I](https://bytepawn.com/random-walks-the-dickey-fuller-test.html) _2025-04-19 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ This post explores how to use the Dickey–Fuller test to check the random‑walk hypothesis for time series using a pure NumPy implementation, and using Monte Carlo simulations to compute critical‑value tables. ## [The reward for long-term resilience in simple trading strategies - Part II](https://bytepawn.com/reward-for-long-term-resilience-in-simple-trading-strategies-part-ii.html) _2025-03-15 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ In this follow-up, I analyze 10 years of data on a select group of stocks to show that while higher take-profit and stop-loss thresholds boost win ratios and Sharpe ratios, longer holding times can lower annualized returns. ## [The reward for long-term resilience in simple trading strategies - Part I](https://bytepawn.com/reward-for-long-term-resilience-in-simple-trading-strategies.html) _2025-03-08 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ In this article, I explore how adopting longer-term, resilient trading strategies with higher take-profit and stop-loss thresholds can deliver more consistent, risk-adjusted performance. ## [Culture talk: What I learned from building a distributed database that never took off](https://bytepawn.com/techtalk-scalien.html) _2024-12-30 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ Recently, I delivered a culture talk on Scalien, my old database startup that never took off. I discussed the business, product and some technical challenges and lessons learned from developing ScalienDB, a Paxos-based distributed NoSQL database. ## [Modern Portfolio Theory III: The Efficient Frontier in log volatility—return space](https://bytepawn.com/modern-portfolio-theory-efficient-frontier.html) _2024-12-29 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ In the previous two articles, we explored the coverage of random portfolios in log volatility—return space, both with and without a risk-free asset. We now take the next step, and calculate the Efficient Frontier and Capital Market Line of Markowitz’s theory. ## [The MMT Perspective on Crypto](https://bytepawn.com/mmt-crypto.html) _2024-12-26 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ From an MMT (chartalist) perspective, cryptocurrencies lack sovereign backing and fail to establish the enforced demand necessary to function as true currency. Because they rely solely on speculative sentiment rather than legal mandates (like taxation), their values are unsustainable in the long run and risk ultimately collapsing to zero. ## [I ❤️ triathlons](https://bytepawn.com/i-love-triathlons.html) _2024-12-25 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ In 2008, I completed my first half-Ironman — then, later that same year, I took on the full Ironman distance at the traditional ExtremeMan in Hungary, finishing in 13 hours and 38 minutes. By 2013, I had knocked my time down to 11 hours and 36 minutes. Since then, I’ve racked up a total of 56 triathlon finishes. 2024 was one of the best years so far, with a record of 10 triathlon races. ## [Modern Portfolio Theory II: Random portfolio coverage in log volatility—return space with a risk free asset](https://bytepawn.com/modern-portfolio-theory-random-portfolio-coverage-risk-free-asset.html) _2024-12-19 · Marton Trencseni · Bytepawn - Marton Trencseni_ In a previous article I simulated random portfolios using Monte Carlo methods for the 2023 daily closing prices of the 100 stocks constituting the Nasdaq-100. Here I add the risk-free asset to the portfolio and examine how it affects the coverage in log volatility—return space.