Predicting Best Picture at the 2025 Academy Awards

February 23rd, 2025 After the SAG and ASC awards last night, we’ve reached the end of the schedule: The only thing left is the Academy Awards, coming up this Sunday. The ASC matters little to the model, and the most predictive award from the SAG awards is the one for ensemble, which went to Conclave (upping it’s chances from 0.01% to 0.08%). The final prediction for Best Picture is Anora.