# alpaca (blogs) — RSS Amplifier Recent posts from the 3 feeds in the RSS Amplifier directory that cover alpaca. Page: Feed: --- ## [Probability Calibration for Binary Markets: Why 98% Confidence Should Scare You](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-21-probability-calibration-for-binary-markets-why-98-confidence-should-scare-you) _2026-08-21 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ If your model says 95% and wins 60% of the time, it's not right often enough to matter — it's just confidently wrong. Here's how to measure that gap and fix it. ## [Visualizing Trade Timestamps Against DST Transitions: The Chart That Revealed the Bug](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-20-visualizing-trade-timestamps-against-dst-transitions-the-chart-that-revealed-the-bug) _2026-08-20 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ When logs showed nothing useful, a single matplotlib chart made the pattern obvious: every losing trade fell inside the DST window. ## [How to Query Kalshi's Metadata API for Correct Settlement Specifications](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-19-how-to-query-kalshis-metadata-api-for-correct-settlement-specifications) _2026-08-19 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A complete working tutorial for querying Kalshi's /events and /markets endpoints to pull correct weather station settlement specs, with copy-paste Python code. ## [49 New Automated Tests: How We Prevent the Same Bugs from Coming Back](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-18-49-new-automated-tests-how-we-prevent-the-same-bugs-from-coming-back) _2026-08-18 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ After a post-mortem found 7 defects in 112 trades, we wrote 49 automated tests to make sure none of them can quietly return. ## [Rebuilt and Undergoing Validation: Where the Weather Bot Stands in July 2026](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-17-rebuilt-and-undergoing-validation-where-the-weather-bot-stands-in-july-2026) _2026-08-17 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ The Weather Bot was rebuilt from scratch after a 112-trade audit found no predictive skill. Here is exactly where it stands, what validation looks like, and what we will know and when. ## [Seven Defects in Four Months: What We Found When We Audited the Weather Bot](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-16-seven-defects-in-four-months-what-we-found-when-we-audited-the-weather-bot) _2026-08-16 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ We ran the Weather Bot for four months, audited 112 completed trades, and found seven distinct defects. Here's what each one looked like in code. ## [The Market Was Right: How Kalshi Priced Our Trades to Within One Percentage Point](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-15-the-market-was-right-how-kalshi-priced-our-trades-to-within-one-percentage-point) _2026-08-15 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ We ran a weather trading bot for four months and discovered the market already knew exactly what we thought we knew. ## [Why We Replaced Our Custom Ensemble with NOAA's National Blend of Models](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-14-why-we-replaced-our-custom-ensemble-with-noaas-national-blend-of-models) _2026-08-14 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ After 112 trades and a Brier score worse than guessing, we audited our custom weather ensemble and discovered NOAA already publishes a better version of it for free. ## [Confident and Wrong: Why Our Model's High-Confidence Trades Lost Money](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-13-confident-and-wrong-why-our-models-high-confidence-trades-lost-money) _2026-08-13 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Our bot predicted 98% confidence and won 60% of the time. Here's the calibration failure that caused it, why overconfidence in binary markets is worse than admitting you don't know, and what we did about it. ## [Chicago Is Not O'Hare: The Settlement Station Mapping Mistake](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-12-chicago-is-not-ohare-the-settlement-station-mapping-mistake) _2026-08-12 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Kalshi settles Chicago temperature contracts on Midway, not O'Hare. Here's how I found that out the hard way, and how to verify settlement stations programmatically before you trade. ## [Stay updated on your professional world (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/Gc4ke9Kh04fr) _2026-08-12 · **Sponsored**_ Keep in touch with people you know, build your career. ## [We Audited 112 Trades and Found Our Model Had No Skill](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-11-we-audited-112-trades-and-found-our-model-had-no-skill) _2026-08-11 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Four months of automated weather trading, a $23 loss, and a Brier score worse than guessing. Here's the full post-mortem. ## [We Turned Down Google's AI Weather Model](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-06-we-turned-down-googles-ai-weather-model) _2026-08-06 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Google's WeatherNext 2 beats ECMWF on 97% of benchmarks and costs nothing. We tested it and said no. Here's the measurement that killed it. ## [The Daylight Saving Time Bug That Broke My Weather Bot for 8 Months](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-07-30-the-daylight-saving-time-bug-that-broke-my-weather-bot-for-8-months) _2026-07-30 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Every losing trade my weather bot made fell in the DST window. Here is how I found it, what the code looked like, and the fix. ## [Building in Public at 60: What Nobody Tells You About Starting Late](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/building-in-public-at-60-what-nobody-tells-you-about-startin) _2026-06-29 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ An honest accounting of what starting a technical side project at 60 actually looks like, the real advantages, the real disadvantages, and why the math still works. ## [Polymarket vs Kalshi: An Honest Comparison for Algo Traders in 2026](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/polymarket-vs-kalshi-an-honest-comparison-for-algo-traders-i) _2026-06-28 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A technical breakdown of Polymarket vs Kalshi for automated traders: regulation, liquidity, API quality, fees, and which platform actually makes sense to build on. ## [The PRD That Was Obsolete Before the Sprint Started](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-prd-that-was-obsolete-before-the-sprint-started) _2026-06-27 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Product requirements documents written by non-engineers, for engineers who weren't consulted, describing features nobody asked for: a post-mortem on corporate spec theater and what I do instead. ## [Why Binary Contracts Are Actually Easier to Model Than Stocks](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/why-binary-contracts-are-actually-easier-to-model-than-stock) _2026-06-26 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Binary prediction markets settle to 0 or 100, and that mathematical simplicity is exactly why a data engineer can build a profitable model for them but not for equities. ## [Kronos: What NVIDIA's 12-Billion-Candlestick Foundation Model Actually Is (And Isn't)](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/kronos-what-nvidias-12-billion-candlestick-foundation-model-) _2026-06-25 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A factual breakdown of NVIDIA's Kronos financial time-series foundation model: what the benchmarks actually show, where it earns the hype, and why it is not a trading signal. ## [The Bug That Made My Bot Blind to Its Own Positions](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-bug-that-made-my-bot-blind-to-its-own-positions) _2026-06-24 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A single wrong dict key in kalshi\_client.py caused the Econ Bot to think it had zero open positions every time it checked, leading to repeated entries and phantom risk it couldn't see. ## [psycopg2 vs SQLAlchemy: Which One Should Your Trading Bot Use?](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/psycopg2-vs-sqlalchemy-which-one-should-your-trading-bot-use) _2026-06-22 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A direct technical comparison of psycopg2 and SQLAlchemy for trading bots, including the creator= pattern for peer auth and what the Predict & Profit bots actually use. ## [Open-source Screen Sharing with Control (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/ns4g7k1DGzeG) _2026-06-22 · **Sponsored**_ WebRTC screen sharing with simultaneous mouse & keyboard control; viewers join in browser. ## [Nginx as a Reverse Proxy: The 20-Line Config That Runs My Production Site](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/nginx-as-a-reverse-proxy-the-20-line-config-that-runs-my-pro) _2026-06-21 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ The actual Nginx config serving predictandprofit.io, explained line by line, with Let's Encrypt SSL and why a $6 VPS beats $50 managed hosting for a Next.js site. ## [The Psychology of Losing Trades: What 9 Months of Automated Trading Taught Me About Detachment](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-psychology-of-losing-trades-what-9-months-of-automated-t) _2026-06-20 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Nine months of watching a bot lose trades I could have manually avoided taught me that the real skill in automated trading is not the algorithm, it is the discipline to leave it alone. ## [Git History as a Debug Tool: How I Found a Two-Week-Old Bug Using git bisect](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/git-history-as-a-debug-tool-how-i-found-a-two-week-old-bug-u) _2026-06-19 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A real debugging story: how git bisect helped me find a silent regression in the weather bot that had been hiding for two weeks inside a commit called 'misc fixes'. ## [Why I Stopped Asking for Permission to Automate My Own Job](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/why-i-stopped-asking-for-permission-to-automate-my-own-job) _2026-06-18 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ The absurdity of hiding automation at work, and what happens when you stop asking for approval and just build. ## [Cron Jobs Are the Most Underrated Automation Tool in a Solo Builder's Stack](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/cron-jobs-are-the-most-underrated-automation-tool-in-a-solo-) _2026-06-17 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A real crontab walkthrough: how I use cron to run DB exports, generate blog posts, update results JSON, and health-check the trading bots without a single line of framework overhead. ## [ECMWF AIFS: The AI Forecast Model That's Quietly Beating the Physics Models](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/ecmwf-aifs-the-ai-forecast-model-thats-quietly-beating-the-p) _2026-06-16 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ ECMWF's AI Integrated Forecasting System is matching or exceeding the deterministic IFS on most skill metrics, and understanding why it works changes how you think about ensemble weighting. ## [Why I Added 62 Unit Tests to a Bot I Already Trusted](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/why-i-added-62-unit-tests-to-a-bot-i-already-trusted) _2026-06-15 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ The econ bot had two bugs that only showed up in production: a regime detection false positive and a strike consistency failure. Here is what I built to make sure they never come back. ## [How to Run Python Scripts on a Schedule Without Cron Breaking Everything](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/how-to-run-python-scripts-on-a-schedule-without-cron-breakin) _2026-06-14 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Cron breaks Python scripts in four specific ways, and each one has a fix that takes less than five minutes once you know what to look for. ## [ECMWF vs GFS: Which Weather Model Is Actually More Accurate for Kalshi Trading?](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/ecmwf-vs-gfs-which-weather-model-is-actually-more-accurate-f) _2026-06-13 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A data-driven comparison of ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS model skill scores, with published RMSE verification data, and why the Weather Bot uses both. ## [Five Signals Are Better Than One: Inside the Econ Bot's Multi-Source Nowcast](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/five-signals-are-better-than-one-inside-the-econ-bots-multi-) _2026-06-12 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A technical walkthrough of the Econ Bot's 5-source signal stack: how Cleveland Fed, FRED, BLS, BEA, and a homemade weighted nowcast combine into a single probability estimate for Kalshi CPI and PCE markets. ## [A Friend Gave You $30 (Sponsored)](https://crawlproof.com/a/tcdhCpfeykNG) _2026-06-12 · **Sponsored**_ Sign up, deposit $5 within 30 days, and start investing with expert guidance. ## [The Architecture Review That Took Longer Than Building the Feature](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-architecture-review-that-took-longer-than-building-the-f) _2026-06-11 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Enterprise architecture review boards exist to prevent mistakes, but somewhere they became the mistake. ## [PM2: The Process Manager That Keeps My Bots Running While I Sleep](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/pm2-the-process-manager-that-keeps-my-bots-running-while-i-s) _2026-06-10 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ How I use PM2 to keep both trading bots alive on a RackNerd VPS without babysitting them at 3am. ## [Regime Change Detection: How the Econ Bot Knows When the Market Has Shifted](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/regime-change-detection-how-the-econ-bot-knows-when-the-mark) _2026-06-09 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ How the Econ Bot's regime change detector works: the threshold math, what triggers a close, and why it's the most important risk feature in the whole system. ## [GitHub Actions from Scratch: The Deployment Pipeline I Wish I'd Had in Corporate](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/github-actions-from-scratch-the-deployment-pipeline-i-wish-i) _2026-06-08 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A real walkthrough of the GitHub Actions workflow running predictandprofit.io, including the actual YAML, and why it runs in under 90 seconds while enterprise CI/CD takes 45 minutes to lint a semicolon. ## [What the Kalshi Order Book Actually Looks Like at 2am (And Why That Matters)](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/what-the-kalshi-order-book-actually-looks-like-at-2am-and-wh) _2026-06-07 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Real observations of Kalshi market liquidity across the trading day, what thin books do to automated execution, and how the Weather Bot handles it without blowing up a position. ## [How I Auto-Generate This Blog With a $6 VPS, a Cron Job, and the Anthropic API](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/how-i-auto-generate-this-blog-with-a-6-vps-a-cron-job-and-th) _2026-06-06 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ The exact pipeline that writes, formats, and publishes these posts automatically: cron, Python, Anthropic API, git push, GitHub Actions, Next.js rebuild, live. ## [nvm, Node Version Hell, and Why I Always Run \`nvm alias default 18\` First](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/nvm-node-version-hell-and-why-i-always-run-nvm-alias-default) _2026-06-05 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Every new SSH session defaulting to Node 16 is a fixable problem, and the fix is one command you should run before you do anything else. ## [How I Backfill Missing Settlement Data from the Kalshi API](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/how-i-backfill-missing-settlement-data-from-the-kalshi-api) _2026-06-04 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ The Kalshi /portfolio/settlements endpoint, why settled trades go missing in the local DB, and the Python backfill script I use to reconcile everything. ## [What Gumroad Actually Pays Out (And What They Don't Tell You About Fees)](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/what-gumroad-actually-pays-out-and-what-they-dont-tell-you-a) _2026-06-03 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ The real Gumroad fee structure in 2026, what you actually net on a $97 sale, and how to keep more of it by driving your own traffic. ## [Environment Variables, Secrets, and .env Files: How I Manage API Keys Across Three Servers](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/environment-variables-secrets-and-env-files-how-i-manage-api) _2026-06-02 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ A practical guide to managing API keys across dev, staging, and prod without leaking secrets into git history. ## [Shipping a SQLite Bot to Customers When You Run PostgreSQL in Prod](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/shipping-a-sqlite-bot-to-customers-when-you-run-postgresql-i) _2026-06-01 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ How I translated the Predict & Profit bots from PostgreSQL with JSONB and peer auth to SQLite for customer distribution, and why SQLite is actually the right call. ## [Reddit Is Still the Best Free Marketing Channel for Technical Products in 2026](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/reddit-is-still-the-best-free-marketing-channel-for-technica) _2026-05-31 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Which subreddits actually drive conversions for a technical trading product, how to post without getting banned, and the real numbers behind 12 sales and $810 with zero paid ads. ## [AWS S3 as a Free Weather Data Pipeline: How NOAA Publishes Forecast Data Without Rate Limits](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/aws-s3-as-a-free-weather-data-pipeline-how-noaa-publishes-fo) _2026-05-30 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ How to pull NOAA AIGEFS forecast data directly from S3 using GRIB2 index byte-range tricks, and why NOMADS will eventually get you rate-limited into the ground. ## [Why I Use an LLC to Sell Software (And What It Actually Costs to Set One Up)](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/why-i-use-an-llc-to-sell-software-and-what-it-actually-costs) _2026-05-29 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ The real costs and practical reasons behind ItsMoreThanSoftware LLC: liability separation, tax treatment, buyer trust, and what changed after selling Predict & Profit source code. ## [The xarray Truthiness Bug That Crashed My Weather Bot Silently](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-xarray-truthiness-bug-that-crashed-my-weather-bot-silent) _2026-05-28 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ How Python's or operator on an xarray DataArray raises a silent ValueError that took down my AIGEFS integration before it ever ran a real trade. ## [Auto-Close on Regime Change: The Feature I Was Afraid to Ship](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/auto-close-on-regime-change-the-feature-i-was-afraid-to-ship) _2026-05-27 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ How the Econ Bot's regime-change auto-close works, why I almost didn't ship it, and the testing path that made me confident enough to turn it on. ## [Building a Dead Simple Health Check for a Headless Python Bot](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/building-a-dead-simple-health-check-for-a-headless-python-bo) _2026-05-27 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ How to know your bot is still running at 3am without buying a monitoring SaaS: a heartbeat file, a lightweight HTTP endpoint, and a cron job that emails you when things go quiet. ## [How I Use Git as a Deployment System (And Why It Works Perfectly for Solo Projects)](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/how-i-use-git-as-a-deployment-system-and-why-it-works-perfectly-for-solo-projects) _2026-05-25 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ My full git push to production workflow for solo Python projects: no Docker, no Kubernetes, no Jenkins, just SSH and a shell script that actually works. ## [Tax Implications of Prediction Market Trading: What I Learned the Hard Way](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/tax-implications-of-prediction-market-trading-what-i-learned) _2026-05-24 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ How Kalshi winnings get taxed, what the 1099 threshold actually means, why you need your own records, and what changes when you trade through an LLC. ## [VPS vs Managed Hosting: Why I Run Everything on a $6 RackNerd Box](https://predictandprofit.io/blog/vps-vs-managed-hosting-why-i-run-everything-on-a-6-racknerd-box) _2026-05-23 · support@predictandprofit.io (Steve Farmer) · Predict & Profit Blog_ Real pricing, real tradeoffs, and the exact setup I use to run two trading bots and a blog on a $6/month VPS.