AI Splits the Market

Most predictions about the AI era assume one outcome across the whole software industry. Startups will eat incumbents. Greenfield will replace brownfield. Faster building means faster disruption. I don't think any of that is true uniformly. The same technology cuts in opposite directions depending on which market it lands in. A recent NBER working paper by Mert Demirer, Leon Musolff, and Liyuan…