Markets don't lie, they leak

Three weeks out from the US election, the polls report a coin flip. Polymarket reports 60-40 for Trump. The polls have said 50-50 for months, always inside the margin of error. Polymarket carries hundreds of millions in cumulative volume behind the drift. So the discourse picked its fighter: "a whale is manipulating the odds". Maybe. That is the wrong question. The right question is what each…