A Poll Put Her 29 Points Ahead. She Lost by Half a Point.

State Navigate had Francesca Hong 29 points ahead in July and 22 ahead on 6 August. David Crowley won Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary 39.8 to 39.3. G. Elliott Morris's reanalysis of the raw data explains most of it — an electorate modelled far too young, late movement, and non-response bias. It does not explain the rest: a third of voters were undecided, three candidates left the…