Recent Recap courtesy of ATB
“We wanted to provide a quick update on federal cannabis rescheduling as we enter late August. We’ve previously mentioned late Aug / Sept as a potential timeline for a decision, so what is happening?
Following the conclusion of the DEA administrative hearing on July 15, the DEA and opposing groups submitted final briefs this week. The record is with Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) Derek Julius to draft a recommended decision.
There’s no strict statutory deadline for this, but this administration is moving fast and in their final brief the DEA again asked the ALJ to move expeditiously, which we think indicates a recommendation could arrive soon.
The ALJ recommendation will then go to the DEA Administrator for the final rule.
Once published in the Federal Register, rescheduling becomes effective 30 days later.
Opposing parties will certainly seek a judicial stay during this 30-day window, which we think remains the primary risk to the process (though the probability is low).
Bottom line, we’re still roughly on track for a rescheduling decision soon. This hinges on how long the ALJ takes to issue their recommendation and how long the DEA Administrator takes to issue the final ruling.
We think both could happen fast. Remember. the midterm elections are approaching in November, which we believe favors a rapid decision.”
Top Stories
American Weed is Going Global. Europe is Not Ready
DEA Makes Final Schedule III Case, Tries to Discredit All Opposing Witnesses
DOJ Finalizes Gun Rights Restoration Rule Exempting Marijuana Use From Drug-Based Disqualifications
Georgia medical cannabis registry adds 10,000 patients after new law
Does federal marijuana rescheduling mean medical cannabis can be mailed? Georgia thinks so.
Trulieve’s NYSE Debut Rewrites the Playbook for US Cannabis Capital Markets
Confusing THC regs show why Texas needs to legalize and regulate cannabis
What Can US States Learn From Each Other About Cannabis Legalization?
Industry Headlines
Avicanna Reports Q2 2026 Financial Results
TDR: Sam Armenia, Director of Capital Markets at Vireo Health 📺
TDR: Todd Harrison at the NYSE ( 👈 good segment with solid interviews)
Chart Check: MSOS
U.S. canna ETF MSOS 0.00%↑ back-tested it’s 200-day moving averages yesterday and held in kind, before buyers stepped in to take us to levels last seen… in July bc this summer—and the year—has been a waiting game ahead of a slew of news that is expected to arrive in the coming months.
ATB on Curaleaf-Aurora
We believe Curaleaf’s formal takeover bid for Aurora offers attractive upside to Aurora shareholders. Therefore, we revise our rating to Tender (from Outperform) and adjust our Price Target to $5.60 (from $6.50) to align with the proposal.
The implied US$4/share consideration offers shareholders a ~45% premium (110% excluding cash) to Aurora’s 30-day VWAP. Based on our estimates, this proposal values Aurora at an Enterprise Value of ~US$171m and an NTMe EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.6x, which is a premium to the peer average of 5.6x.
While the initial offer of US$4 is lower than our previous $6.50 PT, the deal’s capped value of US$5 (~$7, representing a price per Curaleaf share of up to $17.05) would be higher.
Importantly, we believe Curaleaf’s fair value could surpass $17.05 post-closing, driven by the $40m of identified synergies (achievable), and US AU cannabis rescheduling, which we expect to materialize in the coming weeks or months.
AGP on U.S. Cannabis
One of our notable takeaways from 2Q earnings was the return to YoY growth demonstrated by operators. Among MSOs under our coverage 4 of 5 reported YoY growth in 2Q26 (6 of 8 among leading MSOs), representing the first time there has been average YoY growth since 2Q24, and a meaningful improvement compared to just one reporting YoY growth in 2025.
We attribute the improved trends to a number of factors, including store saturation having less of an impact on retail trends, new store additions contributing to sales, and wholesale growth improving for a number of operators. We expect growth for MSOs to continue based on a number of factors.
We believe store saturation will remain less of a factor for retail trends and wholesale trends will remain stable helped by easing pricing pressure in key MSO states.
We also expect MSOs to be the beneficiary of growth in core states such as OH, where strong growth trends have continued post the hemp ban in March, and with the intoxicating hemp ban set to become effective later this year, we could see the entire industry realize a similar sales lift.
We believe the return to growth and improved fundamentals is well-timed as we await Phase II cannabis rescheduling (whole plant), which could come later this fall, with the DEA making a case for cannabis as a Schedule III drug in last month’s ALJ hearing and we continue to note the DEA/DOJ have the ultimate say in rescheduling.
Given the anticipation for full rescheduling to allow uplisting of all US cannabis (not just medical) to major US exchanges, the improved growth trends will further enhance the investment appeal of cannabis operators, in our view.
Stems & Seeds
MMJ Associated With Improved Seizure Frequency In 68% Of Patients
Have a safe journey, please enjoy responsibly.
If you’d like to help Mission [Green] change federal cannabis policies, please click here.
CB1 has positions in/ advises some of the companies mentioned and nothing contained herein should be considered advice.
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.