Good morning, friends! It’s weird to take a full day off baseball bets, but I went through the games this morning, and nothing really jumped out at me. Coming off a very solid day yesterday (11-5 overall), I think it’s probably okay to chill for a day and wait for a better Tuesday slate.
It also gives me some more time to really dive into NFL research and prep. I tossed out my favorite win totals about a month ago and discussed some of those yesterday on my VSIN spot. If you’re wondering what those positions are, here they are once again with a new Jags over 9.5 wins bet added in there.
Some of these odds have moved, but you can still get all of these bets at one book or another.
Now I want to take a look at the season-long player prop market. It’s always tempting to slap down bets on players we like a lot during draft season, and the numbers on these types of props are ALWAYS going to look low or under their projections because the books bake in the injury risk.
It doesn’t mean they still can’t be profitable bets, but it often leads me to be very selective and only pick the spots that seem drastically too low. For example, I am big on David Montgomery this year in Houston, and his rushing TD prop is only 7.5 for the season. He had 8 last year as a part-time player (40% snap share) and is now the lead back. He could have 8 TDs in the first half of the season, making this bet a lot less dependent on him being healthy for all 17 games (though he’s been ultra-reliable and durable in his career, which certainly helps, too).
So you’ll see that I am not picking the high-end guys with yardage props over 1000 (for receivers and backs), and I am really focusing in on the second-tier players who have much lower numbers to hit.
Before I post those props, consider this discount for the upcoming NFL season!
2026 NFL Player Props
I’ll update this list again before the season starts, especially if I add any more props between now and then.
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