It NEVER fails! After a good Wednesday night, I whiffed entirely yesterday. Luckily, it was only a handful of bets, but getting skunked is NEVER fun.
Today brings new hope, with a full Friday slate and a lot of great matchups. I have NINE (yes, 9!) K props today, and am going to continue to attack totals, F5s, and NRFIs when (and only when) the odds make sense.
One of my K props today is over on Kalshi, where we are getting a player at -122 to go over his K prop when the next closest book is around -185!
If you haven’t signed up for Kalshi yet, you can use my promo code THUNDERDAN to get started with a nice little bonus.
I also love Novig, if you’d rather go with a prediction market that is focused only on sports, not other markets like politics, entertainment, and others.
Alright, let’s start getting into the bets. I’ll kick things off with game sides and totals.
I love the odds on these F5s, where I think both teams have a pitching advantage with their starters.
If we like Miz and Irvin’s K props today, then we also have to strongly consider that NRFI at -120, it’s one of the few matchups where both teams have pretty solid arms on the bump.
Getting the Rangers at 3.5 is big here; they get Jack Flaherty, who has been wild and pitching pretty poorly this year. Toronto is -150 at 3.5, but a smash play for me as they face Simeon Woods-Richardson, who has objectively been one of the worst starters in baseball this year.
And the Dodgers have arguably the best offense in baseball going up against Matthew Liberatore.
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