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Thunder Dan's Best Bets · Apr 18, 2026

MLB Best Bets + Props

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Dan Palyo · Thunder Dan's Best Bets

Good morning, friends! It was a pretty wild and WARM week here in central Pennsylvania, and then yesterday it cooled off nicely to where we may have had the perfect Spring day - low 70s high, nice breeze, and some all-around very cool, baseball-friendly vibes.

The pollen is exploding, and so my tissue stockpile is about to dwindle, but I can’t complain - at least it’s not 2 feet of snow, am I right?

It always feels good to get back to the written word. I was mainly posting picks rather hurriedly in the subscriber chat this week, and while those still go out via email, I don’t love leaning on that too often. Today, I already bought my mulch for my flower beds and have my day lined up, so why not spend a little extra time penning a full article and not just dumping picks?

So first of all, we had a very solid day yesterday, which I am hoping to start stacking those up again. DeGrom’s K prop missed, and the Twins ruined the parlay, but 4 props hit and both our NRFI and F5, so easily a winning day.

I do want to take a minute and let you know about a partnership with Kalshi that I just started.

Kalshi is a prediction market, and therefore, we aren’t paying a vig on the lines. It operates much like Novig, which I have mentioned here before, but offers markets for a lot of other non-sports topics as well.

I’ll only ever recommend sports markets plays, but if you are interested in some action over there, I can vouch for them! Deposits and withdrawals are super easy; they take PayPal, Venmo, debit cards, you name it.

Click here and use my promo code THUNDERDAN and get a nice little bonus when you make your first 10 bucks of trades. I’ll probably start posting some Kalshi-specific plays here soon as well.

NBA PROPS

I picked a prop from each of the four NBA games, and it just happened that all four of them were the same exact number - OVER 14.5 points!

Today’s MLB Straight Bets

Rolling with another NRFI (a bit juiced) and an F5 TOTAL.

MLB Pitcher Props

You KNOW this is where our bread is buttered! I have been working with my buddy Casey Wilson the last few days, overhauling our K projections, and I feel pretty good about the direction in which we are heading, especially after a 4-1 night on Friday.

Read the original on thunderdanbets.substack.com

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