The bull case for $PUMP

Pumpfun paying KOLs $30k/month to trade 👀

I have my $PUMP thesis, so lets run it back.

Very simply, its cheap on PE vs $HYPE, revenue is consistent, 50% of revenue hardcoded to buybacks until April 2027, therefore up.

I’m not going to argue on the valuation.

I wrote a fairly aggressive critique of the PUMP a while back, it never changed what I think, being a -ev product and one with a good pmf.

The discount is real and I think there’s a trade here along with some friends who have posted their bullish takes on $PUMP, @Flowslikeosmo, @TheDeFinvestor, @sjdedic

And you have @blknoiz06 in it too

Ansem 🐂🀄️@blknoiz06

going to do this trade thread w/ $PUMP this cycle bottom to top, first tweet at $0.001675 will update here at $0.002544 and all the way back to all time highs and beyond simple thesis: top 3 moneymaker in crypto, $2B in cash, trades at < 2.8x p/e @ ~$1B circ mcap because of bias

Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06

took a punt at solana here, cutting if new lows on the btc pair https://t.co/2Lbzx0da9I

12:09 PM · Aug 9, 2026 · 337K Views

256 Replies · 174 Reposts · 1.54K Likes

What I want to do here in this article is to show that through my analysis the bullish argument becomes weaker than they look.

This is the one that changed my mind and I’ve seen almost nobody state it.

The buyback is denominated in dollars. It’s 50% of revenue, roughly $700k/day. Revenue doesn’t move with the token price. The unlock overhang is denominated in tokens, a fixed count that vests on a schedule, whose dollar value scales linearly with price.

So you have a constant sitting against a line with positive slope.

Run the math.

• At today’s price, unlock sell pressure is ~$484k/day against ~$700k/day of buyback, a genuine net bid of ~$216k/day.

• But the crossover comes at +44.6%.

• Above that, the same schedule that supports you today becomes net supply, because the tokens vesting out are worth more while the dollars buying them back are not.

Let’s look at the unlocks:

• July 2026: ~82.5B PUMP unlocked — 50B team + 32.5B investors. This was the large 12-month cliff.

• After July: the remaining team/investor allocation vests over roughly 36 months, through mid-2029. This should be about 6.875B PUMP/month: ~4.167B team + ~2.708B investors.

• That means roughly 247.5B team/investor tokens remained after the July cliff alone.

• At the current PUMP price of approximately $0.0028, Team + Investors = Total: ≈ $19.25M/month, or roughly $633K/day

• There may also be community/ecosystem supply entering circulation, although the exact schedule there is less certain.

A reflexive mechanism has to strengthen into strength. This one weakens into strength and strengthens into weakness. It’s mean-reverting by construction. You can absolutely make money on that.

It’s a decent floor and a reason the thing hasn’t bled out.

There’s a second-order version that’s worse. The buyback is revenue-linked, and revenue is attention-linked. In a genuine risk-off, memecoin volume falls, revenue falls, the buyback shrinks, at exactly the moment you need it.

The volatility argument here is that Pump’s daily revenue vol ranks top 20% of the top 100 apps, more stable than @Uniswap or @Polymarket.

$PUMP have lost market share since Robinhood chain launched.

Pump’s share of total launchpad fees went 80% → 27% in early July, then back to ~50% by mid-August. Two-thirds of market share lost in weeks to Pons and NOXA on Robinhood Chain, then half of it clawed back.

• Then @RobinhoodApp Chain created an entirely new competitive front. $NOXA generated nearly $12M of fees in roughly two weeks and actually exceeded $PUMP daily protocol fees for five consecutive days.

• NOXA deployed ~60,000 tokens, accounting for 65.8% of Robinhood Chain token launches during its active June 30–July 11 window.

• After NOXA stopped launching tokens, $PONS scaled extraordinarily quickly.

• On July 15, Robinhood Chain launchpad trading-volume share was NOXA 43%, Pons 37%, Flap 6%. The following day $PONS generated 11,547 of the chain’s 42,709 new tokens, or ~27%.

• By July 20, Pons had reached approximately 62% of Robinhood Chain launchpad trading volume and 51% of active launchpad wallets.

However, absolute fees still rose 30% to $31.8m over that window. The launchpad market itself grew 77% to $75.4m. The sector growth masked away a losing market share.

Structurally bullish, tactically cautious, slowly stack. A good take to consider by @gumsays on his bearish take on $PUMP

gum@gumsays

bearish take on $PUMP: (1) onchain trending higher with no breaks for 1+ month (2) Last 3 times revenue reached this level, it was a local top (2.1) coincided with users preferring AI Stock perps - DRAM bounce could steal attention (3) today is unlocks day, ~$19M enters the

gum @gumsays

a lot of bad arguments against $PUMP (1) they have $2B in cash + are profitable at ~$3M per week after buybacks and expenses which is insane for a token valued at $2B (2) yes it would be nice to know the wallet addresses related to buybacks (3) does not mean they are not real,

9:47 AM · Aug 12, 2026 · 16.7K Views

10 Replies · 2 Reposts · 92 Likes

Rising revenue on falling share is often misread in growth investing.

@Pumpfun has reportedly been paying traders $20,000 upfront plus $30,000 monthly to defect from FOMO, conditional on closing their FOMO accounts and trading exclusively on Pump.

Sit with what that implies about pricing power. If you have to rent your volume, your take rate is not defended by switching costs. It’s defended by cash.

April 2027 is a cliff. The buyback commitment expires then. Whatever support it provides goes to zero on a known date. Markets front-run known terminal dates by roughly two quarters, which puts the anticipation window around Q4 2026 — i.e. inside most people’s holding period for this trade. Nobody I’ve read has priced what the asset is worth the day after.

FDV is $2.4bn against ~$1.1bn circulating. Roughly 53% of supply is still to come. The buyback math above assumes the current unlock rate; it gets harder.

However all that said, I don’t think this is a short.

Revenue is real, product-market fit is real, the boost mechanism looks like a genuine improvement, and the market probably is still pricing the equity/token separation as a binary when it’s a spectrum

I think this is a long on memecoin attention, I am not leanging it as a long term cash-flowing business. The buyback thins out when attention dies.

If you’re right about the cycle you’ll make money and you’d have made more in something with cleaner beta to the same thesis and a tougher business model.

The stat I’d watch is the share of launchpad fees. Revenue can rise on a shrinking share in a growing market, and that’s the exact setup that precedes a violent repricing.

All that said, bagholders are simple, none of this changes would change the bull case, simply because, PUMP is cheap relative to HYPE on P/S, revenue has been unusually consistent, current revenue is accelerating, and 50% of revenue continues flowing into buybacks through April 2027.

Not advice. I hold a position.

arndxt@arndxt_xo

https://t.co/XZNGTVZJ08

7:01 PM · Aug 15, 2026